NCAAF • Sat, Nov 7, 01:00
Nebraska visits Illinois in a matchup between undefeated teams, and AccuScore's simulation leans clearly toward the visiting Cornhuskers. The game hinges on passing volume: Anthony Colandrea is projected for 180 yards through the air, while Katin Houser sits at 160, a gap that compounds through the rest of each offense's production. Illinois would need to rely on ground efficiency—Aidan Laughery projected for 50 rushing yards and Collin Dixon for 50 receiving yards—to offset Nebraska's aerial advantage and steal the win at home.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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Nebraska (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.2–4.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Illinois (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.5–5.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Nebraska 61% to beat Illinois (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Nebraska the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Illinois a 39% chance of beating Nebraska, against 61% for Nebraska. Illinois are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Nebraska and Illinois come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Nebraska have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Illinois have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2013: Nebraska 6, Illinois 5. The last meeting, on Sep 19, 2024, finished Illinois 31, Nebraska 24.
Nebraska are 66-27 as favourite and 11-53 as underdog, and 29-47 on the road (38% of 76 games, 2011–2026).
Illinois are 35-19 as favourite and 27-72 as underdog, and 44-48 at home (48% of 92 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 66-27 | 35-19 |
| As underdog | 11-53 | 27-72 |
| At home | 52-38 | 44-48 |
| On the road | 29-47 | 25-45 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →