NCAAF
Final · UNM 31–3 NEV ·
New Mexico
7-0
31
Nevada
3-0
3
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | NEV | EV | UNM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +10 | -108 | -2.7% | -112 | -1.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +10.5 | -120 | -3.5% | -102 | -1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +10 | -105 | -2.1% | -112 | -1.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +10 | -112 | -3.5% | -109 | -1.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +10.5 | -120 | -3.5% | +100 | -0.7% |
| Book | NEV | EV | UNM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +310 | +0.4% | -395 | -2.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +340 | +4.1% | -450 | -3.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +333 | +3.3% | -425 | -3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | +305 | -0.2% | -390 | -2.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +340 | +4.1% | -450 | -3.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 38.5 | -108 | +2.8% | -112 | -7.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 38.5 | -110 | +2.3% | -110 | -6.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 38.5 | -108 | +2.8% | -110 | -6.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 39 | -111 | +0.9% | -110 | -5.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 38.5 | -110 | +2.3% | -110 | -6.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 14 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
| NEV | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
S. Humphrey run for 2 yds, for a TD (N. Romero KICK)
UNM
7–0
K. Sibley run for 31 yds, for a TD (N. Romero KICK)
UNM
14–0
J. Fernandez 32 yd FG GOOD
NEV
14–3
S. Humphrey run for 1 yd, for a TD (N. Romero KICK)
UNM
21–3
T. Fa'avae pass to C. Keith for 25 yds, for a TD (N. Romero KICK)
UNM
28–3
N. Romero 37 yd FG GOOD
UNM
31–3
| UNM | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toa Fa'avae | 14/20 | 150 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Moga | 2/2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NEV | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Bianco | 14/31 | 106 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue
Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV
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AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico 75% to beat Nevada (25%). Final score: New Mexico 31, Nevada 3.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico the more likely winner at 75%. The game finished New Mexico 31, Nevada 3.
AccuScore's simulation gives Nevada a 25% chance of beating New Mexico, against 75% for New Mexico. It finished Nevada 3, New Mexico 31.
New Mexico (7-1 so far) project to finish 10.1–1.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Nevada (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.8–7.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 10.1–1.9 | 73% | 23% |
| Nevada | 4.8–7.2 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How New Mexico and Nevada come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New Mexico have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Nevada have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 7 times since 2011: New Mexico 2, Nevada 5. The last meeting, on Oct 17, 2025, finished Nevada 22, New Mexico 24.
New Mexico are 28-13 as favourite and 18-90 as underdog, and 25-63 on the road (28% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
Nevada are 45-18 as favourite and 23-69 as underdog, and 38-35 at home (52% of 73 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UNM | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 28-13 | 45-18 |
| As underdog | 18-90 | 23-69 |
| At home | 26-44 | 38-35 |
| On the road | 25-63 | 31-58 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →