NCAAF
TCU
4-0
Arizona
6-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Arizona hosts undefeated TCU in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Wildcats. Noah Fifita is projected for 190 passing yards against Jaden Craig's 180, a marginal advantage that compounds through Arizona's depth—Isaiah Mizell projects 50 receiving yards to Ed Small's 30. The game turns on Arizona's ability to control the line and limit explosive plays; TCU will need to stay efficient vertically and force the Wildcats into mistakes. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 66% of 2,499 graded matchups. For TCU to pull the upset, their passing attack would need to sharply outperform projection while Arizona's run game stalls.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TCU ML
TCU +200
-0.2% EV
30.6% leads · push 7.9%
DraftKings ↗
1H ARIZ ML
ARIZ -230
-1.9% EV
61.5% leads · push 7.9%
Hard Rock Bet ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
TCU +4.5 -110
+0.2% EV
52.6% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
ARIZ -4.5 -108
-4.3% EV
47.4% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -102
-4.4% EV
46.1% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 -110
+1.5% EV
53.9% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | ARIZ | EV | TCU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7.5 | -108 | -0.7% | -112 | -3.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -7.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -7.5 | -106 | -0.2% | -113 | -4.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7.5 | -105 | +0.0% | -115 | -4.4% |
| Book | ARIZ | EV | TCU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -298 | -2.6% | +240 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -295 | -2.5% | +240 | -0.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -295 | -2.5% | +240 | -0.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -310 | -3.0% | +240 | -0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -290 | -2.3% | +240 | -0.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 46.5 | -108 | -7.5% | -112 | +2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 46.5 | -105 | -6.9% | -115 | +2.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 46.5 | -110 | -7.9% | -108 | +3.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 46 | -112 | -7.0% | -108 | +2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 46.5 | -110 | -7.9% | -110 | +3.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.2%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona 71% to beat TCU (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arizona a 71% chance of beating TCU, against 29% for TCU. Arizona are at home and favoured on these numbers.
TCU (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.6–6.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arizona (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.4–3.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How TCU and Arizona come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
TCU have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Arizona have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: TCU 1, Arizona 0. The last meeting, on Nov 23, 2024, finished Arizona 28, TCU 49.
TCU are 73-32 as favourite and 20-34 as underdog, and 47-33 on the road (59% of 80 games, 2011–2026).
Arizona are 46-19 as favourite and 22-64 as underdog, and 44-39 at home (53% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TCU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 73-32 | 46-19 |
| As underdog | 20-34 | 22-64 |
| At home | 54-34 | 44-39 |
| On the road | 47-33 | 25-52 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →