NCAAF
North Carolina
4-0
UConn
4-0
Win Probability
North Carolina travels to UConn unbeaten, and the simulation favors the Tar Heels clearly in this matchup of perfect records. Billy Edwards Jr. projects for 210 passing yards while Kalieb Osborne is expected to reach 190, a gap that reflects where this game is decided: North Carolina's passing attack should create separation that UConn's defence struggles to contain. When AccuScore's model leans this decidedly toward the visiting side across similar games, it has won 66% of the time. For UConn to pull the upset at home, Cyncir Bowers would need to impose a rushing game that doesn't materialise in the projections—the Huskies' running back is forecast for just 50 yards.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UNC ML
UNC -235
-4.0% EV
59.3% leads · push 7.4%
BetMGM ↗
1H CONN ML
CONN +210
+5.3% EV
33.3% leads · push 7.4%
betPARX ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
UNC -4.5 -110
-5.9% EV
46.2% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
CONN +4.5 -108
+1.8% EV
53.8% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 27.5 +100
-0.3% EV
49.7% over
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Total
U 27.5 -105
-0.9% EV
50.3% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | CONN | EV | UNC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +7.5 | -108 | -0.8% | -112 | -3.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +7.5 | -106 | -0.4% | -114 | -4.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +8 | -112 | -0.1% | -105 | -3.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +7.5 | -106 | -0.4% | -113 | -3.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +8.5 | -115 | +0.6% | -105 | -5.3% |
| Book | CONN | EV | UNC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +235 | +2.3% | -290 | -3.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +250 | +4.6% | -310 | -4.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +240 | +3.0% | -300 | -4.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | +240 | +3.0% | -295 | -3.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +260 | +6.2% | -320 | -4.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 54.5 | -115 | -2.4% | -105 | -2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 54.5 | -114 | -2.2% | -106 | -2.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 54.5 | -112 | -1.8% | -105 | -2.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 54.5 | -108 | -1.0% | -112 | -3.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 54.5 | -115 | -2.4% | -105 | -2.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 31.2%
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AccuScore's simulation makes North Carolina 69% to beat UConn (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Carolina the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UConn a 31% chance of beating North Carolina, against 69% for North Carolina. UConn are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
North Carolina (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.2–5.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UConn (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.3–5.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 6.2–5.8 | 0% | <1% |
| UConn | 6.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How North Carolina and UConn come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
North Carolina have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
UConn have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: North Carolina 0, UConn 1. The last meeting, on Dec 28, 2024, finished UConn 27, North Carolina 14.
North Carolina are 56-29 as favourite and 17-52 as underdog, and 36-45 on the road (44% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
UConn are 22-12 as favourite and 20-85 as underdog, and 30-42 at home (42% of 72 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UNC | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 56-29 | 22-12 |
| As underdog | 17-52 | 20-85 |
| At home | 42-41 | 30-42 |
| On the road | 36-45 | 17-60 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →