NCAAF
Temple
2-0
Navy
2-0
Win Probability
Navy hosts Temple in a matchup of undefeated teams where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Temple's Ajani Sheppard is projected for 170 passing yards, while Navy's Jackson Gutierrez trails at 130—the disparity in offensive firepower through the air represents the game's central tension. Keveun Mason is projected for 55 rushing yards as Temple's ground game, compared to Vic Listorti's 45, giving the visitors a slight edge in run production despite the overall lean toward Navy. In 2,201 past games where the model favored one side this strongly, that side won 76% of the time. For Temple to prevail, it would need Sheppard's passing advantage to overcome Navy's home-field positioning and convert opportunities into points at an efficient rate.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TEM ML
TEM +196
+1.5% EV
32.4% leads · push 7.2%
FanDuel ↗
1H NAVY ML
NAVY -220
-2.5% EV
60.4% leads · push 7.2%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
TEM +4.5 -110
-0.1% EV
52.3% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Spread
NAVY -4.5 -102
-2.7% EV
47.8% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 27.5 -102
-3.5% EV
47.0% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 27.5 -113
-0.0% EV
53.0% under
Caesars ↗
| Book | Line | NAVY | EV | TEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7.5 | -102 | -0.2% | -118 | -4.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7.5 | +100 | +0.3% | -122 | -4.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -7 | -112 | -0.7% | -105 | -3.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -7.5 | -102 | -0.2% | -118 | -4.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7.5 | -105 | -0.9% | -115 | -3.6% |
| Book | NAVY | EV | TEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -270 | -1.7% | +220 | -2.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -285 | -2.4% | +230 | -1.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -275 | -1.9% | +225 | -2.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -290 | -2.6% | +230 | -1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -280 | -2.2% | +230 | -1.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 54.5 | -112 | -5.5% | -108 | +1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -5.1% | -110 | +0.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 54.5 | -108 | -4.7% | -110 | +0.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 54.5 | -114 | -5.8% | -105 | +1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -5.1% | -110 | +0.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 29.5%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Navy 71% to beat Temple (30%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Navy the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Navy a 71% chance of beating Temple, against 30% for Temple. Navy are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Temple (2-6 so far) project to finish 3.8–8.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Navy (2-6 so far) project to finish 4.5–7.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Temple and Navy come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Temple have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Navy have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 9 times since 2014: Temple 3, Navy 6. The last meeting, on Oct 11, 2025, finished Navy 32, Temple 31.
Temple are 42-18 as favourite and 26-73 as underdog, and 33-53 on the road (38% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
Navy are 63-20 as favourite and 27-51 as underdog, and 54-31 at home (64% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TEM | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 42-18 | 63-20 |
| As underdog | 26-73 | 27-51 |
| At home | 37-43 | 54-31 |
| On the road | 33-53 | 41-43 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →