NCAAF
Boise State
7-0
Colorado State
3-0
Win Probability
Boise State travels to Colorado State as a decisive favourite in AccuScore's simulation. Dylan Riley is projected for 100 rushing yards, while Colorado State's Durell Robinson counters with 55—a gap that captures how this game tilts toward the visitor's ground game controlling pace and field position. In 1,760 games where the simulation favoured one side this strongly, that side won 86% of the time. For Colorado State to pull the upset at home, it would need Hauss Hejny to operate far more efficiently through the air than his projected 80 passing yards suggest, converting early chances into points before Boise State's advantage compounds.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H BOIS ML
BOIS -475
-1.6% EV
75.0% leads · push 5.9%
BetMGM ↗
1H CSU ML
CSU +440
+4.4% EV
19.1% leads · push 5.9%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
BOIS -10.5 -102
-2.3% EV
48.2% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
CSU +10.5 -108
-0.1% EV
51.8% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Total
O 35.5 +100
+0.2% EV
50.2% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 35.5 -118
-4.0% EV
49.8% under
betPARX ↗
| Book | Line | CSU | EV | BOIS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +17.5 | -118 | -2.0% | -102 | -2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +16.5 | -108 | -3.0% | -112 | -1.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +16.5 | -108 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | +17 | -109 | -1.6% | -110 | -2.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +16.5 | -105 | -2.4% | -115 | -2.1% |
| Book | CSU | EV | BOIS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +625 | -3.6% | -950 | -1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +590 | -5.8% | -880 | -1.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +650 | -2.0% | -900 | -1.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | +650 | -2.0% | -1000 | -2.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +550 | -8.4% | -900 | -1.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 68.5 | -115 | +2.4% | -105 | -7.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 68.5 | -110 | +3.5% | -110 | -8.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 68.5 | -110 | +3.5% | -108 | -7.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 68.5 | -113 | +2.8% | -106 | -7.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 69.5 | -105 | +2.5% | -115 | -6.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 52.0%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State 87% to beat Colorado State (13%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State the more likely winner at 87%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Colorado State a 13% chance of beating Boise State, against 87% for Boise State. Colorado State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Boise State (7-1 so far) project to finish 9.5–1.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 45% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Colorado State (3-5 so far) project to finish 3.5–7.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 9.5–1.5 | 82% | 45% |
| Colorado State | 3.5–7.5 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Boise State and Colorado State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Boise State have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Colorado State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Boise State 13, Colorado State 0. The last meeting, on Nov 21, 2025, finished Colorado State 21, Boise State 49.
Boise State are 119-26 as favourite and 8-18 as underdog, and 62-27 on the road (70% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
Colorado State are 36-22 as favourite and 21-71 as underdog, and 36-45 at home (44% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BOIS | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 119-26 | 36-22 |
| As underdog | 8-18 | 21-71 |
| At home | 73-18 | 36-45 |
| On the road | 62-27 | 27-51 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →