Miami Hurricanes
8-0
Notre Dame
7-0
Win Probability
Notre Dame hosts the Miami Hurricanes in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side clearly. Darian Mensah projects to 190 passing yards while CJ Carr reaches 200, a narrow gap that masks the game's central tension: Miami Hurricanes must generate more from their ground game, with Mark Fletcher Jr. forecast for only 45 rushing yards against Notre Dame's distributed attack. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 66 percent of 2,499 graded contests. For Miami Hurricanes to pull off the upset, their passing attack would need to overcome a Notre Dame defense calibrated to shut down the one dimension where the visitors project near parity.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MIA ML
MIA +185
+0.3% EV
32.7% leads · push 7.4%
DraftKings ↗
1H ND ML
ND -220
-2.8% EV
59.9% leads · push 7.4%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MIA +4.5 -112
+0.5% EV
53.3% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
ND -4.5 -104
-4.2% EV
46.7% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Total
O 27.5 -110
+2.5% EV
54.9% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 27.5 -104
-5.8% EV
45.1% under
Caesars ↗
| Book | Line | ND | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7.5 | -102 | -1.1% | -118 | -3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7.5 | -105 | -1.8% | -115 | -2.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -7.5 | -105 | -1.8% | -115 | -2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -7.5 | -101 | -0.9% | -118 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7.5 | -105 | -1.8% | -115 | -2.7% |
| Book | ND | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -278 | -2.9% | +225 | -0.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -275 | -2.7% | +225 | -0.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -275 | -2.7% | +225 | -0.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -295 | -3.6% | +235 | +1.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -290 | -3.4% | +240 | +2.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 54.5 | -115 | +5.6% | -105 | -10.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 55.5 | -104 | +5.9% | -115 | -9.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 54.5 | -112 | +6.3% | -105 | -10.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 54.5 | -113 | +6.1% | -106 | -10.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | +6.8% | -110 | -11.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 30.7%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Notre Dame 69% to beat Miami Hurricanes (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Notre Dame the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Notre Dame a 69% chance of beating Miami Hurricanes, against 31% for Miami Hurricanes. Notre Dame are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Miami Hurricanes (8-0 so far) project to finish 11.1–0.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 94% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Notre Dame (7-1 so far) project to finish 10.4–1.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 91% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Hurricanes | 11.1–0.9 | 98% | 94% |
| Notre Dame | 10.4–1.6 | 0% | 91% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Miami Hurricanes and Notre Dame come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Miami Hurricanes have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Notre Dame have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2012: Miami Hurricanes 2, Notre Dame 2. The last meeting, on Aug 31, 2025, finished Notre Dame 24, Miami Hurricanes 27.
Miami Hurricanes are 79-33 as favourite and 19-30 as underdog, and 45-40 on the road (53% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
Notre Dame are 114-22 as favourite and 16-22 as underdog, and 87-19 at home (82% of 106 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MIA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 79-33 | 114-22 |
| As underdog | 19-30 | 16-22 |
| At home | 58-26 | 87-19 |
| On the road | 45-40 | 54-25 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →