Air Force
5-0
Army
5-0
Win Probability
Two unbeaten teams meet when Air Force travels to Army, with the simulation favoring the home side clearly. Cale Hellums and the Army offense are projected to move the ball through the air—130 passing yards—while Air Force's Owen Allen will lean on the ground game with 55 rushing yards. The game turns on whether Army can sustain that passing attack; if Hellums stalls, Air Force's defense tightens the margin considerably. On similar matchups at this win probability, AccuScore's record stands at 56 percent over 77 graded games. For Air Force to pull the upset, the Falcons would need Allen to break free on the ground and limit Army's aerial production.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ARMY | EV | AFA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -5.5 | -115 | +1.6% | -105 | -6.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5.5 | -147 | -3.6% | -135 | -11.0% |
| Book | ARMY | EV | AFA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -205 | +1.1% | +170 | -7.7% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -191 | +2.3% | +140 | -12.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -235 | -1.0% | +121 | -15.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | -0.1% | -110 | -4.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 51.5 | -5429 | -23.4% | -5429 | -25.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 68.7%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Army 69% to beat Air Force (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Army the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Army a 69% chance of beating Air Force, against 31% for Air Force. Army are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Air Force (5-2 so far) project to finish 7.7–4.3 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Army (5-2 so far) project to finish 8.0–4.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Air Force and Army come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Air Force have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Army have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Air Force 7, Army 6. The last meeting, on Nov 1, 2025, finished Army 20, Air Force 17.
Air Force are 58-30 as favourite and 18-42 as underdog, and 33-46 on the road (42% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
Army are 41-19 as favourite and 23-59 as underdog, and 41-29 at home (59% of 70 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | AFA | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 58-30 | 41-19 |
| As underdog | 18-42 | 23-59 |
| At home | 50-29 | 41-29 |
| On the road | 33-46 | 30-52 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →