NCAAF
Fresno State
5-0
Utah State
3-0
Win Probability
Fresno State travels to Utah State as a perfect 5-0 team facing a perfect 3-0 host, with the simulation favoring the Bulldogs slightly. The game hinges on Fresno State's passing game: Jayden Mandal is projected for 170 yards, and if that output materializes, the visitors' balanced attack becomes difficult to contain on the road. Utah State's ground game, led by Javen Jacobs at 55 projected rushing yards, will need to establish early rhythm to stay competitive. In games shaped like this one, the favored side won 55% of the time across a large historical sample. For Utah State to pull the upset at home, the Aggies would need to disrupt Fresno State's passing rhythm while sustaining drives with Jacobs.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H FRES ML
FRES -120
-0.4% EV
49.7% leads · push 8.2%
BetMGM ↗
1H USU ML
USU +110
-1.6% EV
42.1% leads · push 8.2%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
FRES -0.5 -105
-1.5% EV
49.7% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
USU +0.5 -112
-2.4% EV
50.3% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 20.5 -115
-2.4% EV
50.9% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 20.5 +100
-0.9% EV
49.1% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | USU | EV | FRES | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +2.5 | -112 | -2.4% | -108 | -2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | -113 | -2.6% | -106 | -1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +2 | -108 | -3.1% | -112 | -1.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +2.5 | -105 | -0.9% | -114 | -3.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | -2.0% | -110 | -2.5% |
| Book | USU | EV | FRES | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +110 | -3.5% | -130 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +106 | -4.4% | -128 | -0.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +110 | -3.5% | -130 | -0.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +111 | -3.3% | -130 | -0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +110 | -3.5% | -130 | -0.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 42.5 | -108 | -4.5% | -112 | -0.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -108 | +0.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 55.7%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Fresno State 56% to beat Utah State (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Fresno State the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah State a 44% chance of beating Fresno State, against 56% for Fresno State. Utah State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Fresno State (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.8–4.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Utah State (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.0–7.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno State | 6.8–4.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Utah State | 4.0–7.0 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Fresno State and Utah State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Fresno State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Utah State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 7 times since 2011: Fresno State 3, Utah State 4. The last meeting, on Nov 21, 2025, finished Utah State 28, Fresno State 17.
Fresno State are 64-22 as favourite and 22-49 as underdog, and 43-48 on the road (47% of 91 games, 2011–2026).
Utah State are 63-21 as favourite and 21-54 as underdog, and 50-28 at home (64% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 64-22 | 63-21 |
| As underdog | 22-49 | 21-54 |
| At home | 46-29 | 50-28 |
| On the road | 43-48 | 37-52 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →