Texas State
4-0
Oregon State
5-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Texas State visits undefeated Oregon State in a matchup between two of college football's remaining perfect teams. The simulation favours the Beavers, who host this contest. Oregon State's Braden Atkinson is projected for 240 passing yards, while Texas State's Brad Jackson trails at 210; that 30-yard gap in volume reflects how the model sees this game flowing. The deciding factor is Oregon State's ground game—AJ Newberry is projected for 60 rushing yards against Texas State's Torrance Burgess Jr. at 70—a thin margin that tilts field position and clock control toward the home side. On games shaped this way, the favoured side has won 66% of the time across AccuScore's history.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TXST ML
TXST +160
+0.5% EV
36.0% leads · push 7.4%
theScore Bet ↗
1H ORST ML
ORST -170
-1.4% EV
56.6% leads · push 7.4%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
TXST +3.5 -105
-1.1% EV
50.1% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Spread
ORST -3.5 -104
-1.0% EV
49.9% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
O 35.5 -110
-2.6% EV
49.6% over
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
U 35.5 -109
-1.7% EV
50.3% under
betPARX ↗
| Book | Line | ORST | EV | TXST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -6.5 | -106 | -3.3% | -114 | -1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -6 | -110 | -2.4% | -108 | -1.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -6.5 | -108 | -3.7% | -112 | -0.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -6.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.4% |
| Book | ORST | EV | TXST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -250 | -3.9% | +205 | +2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -215 | -1.7% | +180 | -2.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -235 | -3.0% | +190 | -0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -245 | -3.6% | +200 | +1.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -225 | -2.4% | +190 | -0.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 71.5 | -112 | -1.7% | -108 | -2.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 70.5 | -110 | +1.3% | -110 | -5.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 71.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -112 | -3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 71.5 | -108 | -0.9% | -112 | -3.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 71.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -115 | -4.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 34.1%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State 66% to beat Texas State (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oregon State a 66% chance of beating Texas State, against 34% for Texas State. Oregon State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Texas State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oregon State (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.7–4.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State | 5.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Oregon State | 6.7–4.3 | 17% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Texas State and Oregon State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas State have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Oregon State have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Texas State are 25-16 as favourite and 16-84 as underdog, and 17-61 on the road (22% of 78 games, 2012–2026).
Oregon State are 28-19 as favourite and 24-75 as underdog, and 32-43 at home (43% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TXST | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 25-16 | 28-19 |
| As underdog | 16-84 | 24-75 |
| At home | 29-42 | 32-43 |
| On the road | 17-61 | 21-58 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →