Wyoming
5-0
UNLV
5-0
Win Probability
An undefeated Wyoming team travels to face undefeated UNLV, with the simulation clearly favoring the home side. The difference comes down to volume: UNLV's Jackson Arnold projects for 170 passing yards against Wyoming's Tyler Hughes at 160, while Jai'Den Thomas is expected to add 65 rushing yards to a Rebels offense that should generate more total opportunities. When AccuScore has leaned this strongly toward one side in past games of similar shape, that side won 66 percent of the time. Wyoming would need to limit UNLV's yardage advantage and convert their fewer offensive touches into points to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H WYO ML
WYO +170
-2.1% EV
32.6% leads · push 7.7%
DraftKings ↗
1H UNLV ML
UNLV -185
-0.2% EV
59.7% leads · push 7.7%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
WYO +3.5 -105
-2.1% EV
49.0% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Spread
UNLV -3.5 -104
-0.0% EV
51.0% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -130
-5.8% EV
49.9% over
betPARX ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 +110
+2.6% EV
50.1% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | UNLV | EV | WYO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -5.5 | -110 | +3.1% | -110 | -7.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -5.5 | -110 | +3.1% | -110 | -7.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -5.5 | -110 | +3.1% | -108 | -7.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -5.5 | -113 | +2.4% | -106 | -6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5.5 | -105 | +4.3% | -115 | -8.5% |
| Book | UNLV | EV | WYO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -218 | +0.7% | +180 | -7.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -205 | +1.7% | +168 | -9.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -210 | +1.3% | +175 | -8.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -225 | +0.2% | +184 | -6.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -200 | +2.1% | +170 | -8.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -112 | -7.8% | -108 | +3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -112 | -7.8% | -108 | +3.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | -7.4% | -108 | +3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | -7.4% | -110 | +2.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | -7.4% | -110 | +2.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 55.6%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV 70% to beat Wyoming (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV the more likely winner at 70%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UNLV a 70% chance of beating Wyoming, against 31% for Wyoming. UNLV are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Wyoming (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.5–5.5 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UNLV (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.4–4.6 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Wyoming and UNLV come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Wyoming have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
UNLV have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 6 times since 2011: Wyoming 4, UNLV 2. The last meeting, on Oct 4, 2025, finished UNLV 31, Wyoming 17.
Wyoming are 37-16 as favourite and 27-67 as underdog, and 29-54 on the road (35% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
UNLV are 24-21 as favourite and 24-79 as underdog, and 31-41 at home (43% of 72 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WYO | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 37-16 | 24-21 |
| As underdog | 27-67 | 24-79 |
| At home | 38-35 | 31-41 |
| On the road | 29-54 | 25-61 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →