Sacramento State
2-0
Central Michigan
3-0
Win Probability
Central Michigan hosts Sacramento State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Jackson Sharman is projected for 150 passing yards, while Central Michigan's Jadyn Glasser lands at 140—a narrow margin that belies the 16-point gap in total output the model expects. The game turns on Sacramento State's ability to generate yardage on the ground; Isaiah Ene is projected for just 40 rushing yards in a context where every yard matters for a visitor trailing in the simulation. AccuScore's model has gone 8-for-8 on wins in similar statistical situations across other matchups. For Sacramento State to upset, it would need to establish sustained offensive rhythm despite the projection favoring Central Michigan decisively.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | CMU | EV | SAC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | +1.3% | -110 | -5.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -14.5 | -10969 | -22.9% | -10969 | -26.7% |
| Book | CMU | EV | SAC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -750 | -1.9% | +530 | -2.4% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -660 | -1.1% | +456 | -8.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -947 | -3.1% | +358 | -15.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 43.5 | -110 | -2.9% | -110 | -1.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 43.5 | -10969 | -25.1% | -10969 | -24.4% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Central Michigan 85% to beat Sacramento State (15%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Central Michigan the more likely winner at 85%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Central Michigan a 85% chance of beating Sacramento State, against 15% for Sacramento State. Central Michigan are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Sacramento State (2-8 so far) project to finish 2.2–9.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Central Michigan (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.9–6.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento State | 2.2–9.8 | 0% | 0% |
| Central Michigan | 5.9–6.1 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Sacramento State and Central Michigan come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Sacramento State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Central Michigan have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
Central Michigan are 38-19 as favourite and 28-67 as underdog, and 33-37 at home (47% of 70 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SAC | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | — | 38-19 |
| As underdog | — | 28-67 |
| At home | — | 33-37 |
| On the road | — | 35-58 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →