Massachusetts
4-0
Toledo
6-0
Win Probability
Massachusetts travels to Toledo in a matchup that heavily favors the home side. The simulation projects John Alan Richter to throw for 200 yards while William Watson III manages just 120, a gap that reflects the visitors' uphill battle. Toledo's rushing attack, led by CJ Miller at 75 projected yards, should control the line of scrimmage against Massachusetts' Elijah Faulkner at 40. The game hinges on whether Massachusetts can generate any offensive rhythm; the model's track record on games shaped this way—favoring the home team decisively—stands at 64 percent over 42 similar matchups. For the Minutemen to pull the upset, they would need Watson and Faulkner to significantly outperform their projections while Toledo's passing game stalls.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | TOL | EV | MASS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -14.5 | -105 | +3.3% | -115 | -7.5% |
| Book | TOL | EV | MASS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -650 | -0.6% | +470 | -9.0% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -788 | -1.8% | +490 | -7.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -6.8% | -10969 | -42.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.7% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo 86% to beat Massachusetts (14%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo the more likely winner at 86%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toledo a 86% chance of beating Massachusetts, against 14% for Massachusetts. Toledo are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Massachusetts (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Toledo (7-2 so far) project to finish 9.3–2.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | 6.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% |
| Toledo | 9.3–2.7 | 44% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Massachusetts and Toledo come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Massachusetts have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Toledo have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2014: Massachusetts 0, Toledo 5. The last meeting, on Sep 7, 2024, finished Massachusetts 23, Toledo 38.
Massachusetts are 7-8 as favourite and 11-84 as underdog, and 8-58 on the road (12% of 66 games, 2012–2026).
Toledo are 87-27 as favourite and 13-29 as underdog, and 56-22 at home (72% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MASS | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 7-8 | 87-27 |
| As underdog | 11-84 | 13-29 |
| At home | 10-42 | 56-22 |
| On the road | 8-58 | 49-39 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →