Memphis
7-2
South Florida
6-3
Win Probability
Memphis travels to South Florida as a clear favourite in AccuScore's simulation. Marcus Stokes projects for 170 passing yards for Memphis, while South Florida's Luke Kromenhoek is expected to manage just 100—a disparity that will shape field position and clock management throughout. The visiting Tigers' ground game, anchored by Jaylin Carter's projected 55 rushing yards, should control tempo against D.J. Crowther's 60 projected yards for the home Bulls. On similar games shaped this way, AccuScore's favoured side won 66 percent of the time. For South Florida to pull the upset, it would need Kromenhoek to exceed his projection significantly while Memphis stalls on early drives.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | USF | EV | MEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | +6.5 | -150 | -4.6% | -150 | -12.1% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +7.5 | -151 | -2.6% | -130 | -12.0% |
| Book | USF | EV | MEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +217 | +7.1% | -263 | -5.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +185 | +1.3% | -316 | -7.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 48.5 | -133 | -2.2% | -130 | -9.8% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis 64% to beat South Florida (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Florida a 36% chance of beating Memphis, against 64% for Memphis. South Florida are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Memphis (7-2 so far) project to finish 8.8–3.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Florida (6-3 so far) project to finish 8.3–3.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | 8.8–3.2 | 18% | 5% |
| South Florida | 8.3–3.7 | <1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Memphis and South Florida come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Memphis have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
South Florida have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 8 times since 2013: Memphis 6, South Florida 2. The last meeting, on Oct 25, 2025, finished South Florida 34, Memphis 31.
Memphis are 71-23 as favourite and 16-49 as underdog, and 37-48 on the road (44% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
South Florida are 47-19 as favourite and 13-74 as underdog, and 33-46 at home (42% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 71-23 | 47-19 |
| As underdog | 16-49 | 13-74 |
| At home | 58-25 | 33-46 |
| On the road | 37-48 | 32-50 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →