Arizona State
4-4
UCF
4-4
Win Probability
Arizona State travels to face UCF in a matchup between two evenly matched 4-4 teams, with the simulation favoring the home side. The Knights' advantage hinges on offensive efficiency: UCF's Josh Derry and Tyren Hornes are each projected for 35-40 receiving yards, while Arizona State's Jake Fette is expected to manage just 60 passing yards. On similar win probabilities across 8 other games, the favored side won 62.5% of the time. For Arizona State to pull the upset, the Sun Devils would need their passing game—led by Fette—to significantly exceed projections and tighten a game the model expects to be close.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | UCF | EV | ASU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -3.5 | -102 | +1.0% | -120 | -5.6% |
| Book | UCF | EV | ASU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -150 | +1.3% | +126 | -6.6% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -161 | -0.1% | +105 | -10.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1736 | -17.4% | -1736 | -29.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 61.6%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes UCF 62% to beat Arizona State (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UCF the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UCF a 62% chance of beating Arizona State, against 38% for Arizona State. UCF are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Arizona State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.8–6.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UCF (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona State | 5.8–6.2 | 0% | <1% |
| UCF | 6.1–5.9 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Arizona State and UCF come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Arizona State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
UCF have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: Arizona State 1, UCF 0. The last meeting, on Nov 8, 2024, finished UCF 31, Arizona State 35.
Arizona State are 62-25 as favourite and 23-48 as underdog, and 31-47 on the road (40% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
UCF are 85-24 as favourite and 15-37 as underdog, and 60-25 at home (71% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ASU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 62-25 | 85-24 |
| As underdog | 23-48 | 15-37 |
| At home | 63-28 | 60-25 |
| On the road | 31-47 | 42-43 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →