Baylor
5-0
BYU
7-0
Win Probability
Unbeaten Baylor travels to face unbeaten BYU in a matchup the simulation favours decisively to the home side. Bear Bachmeier's projected 190 passing yards against DJ Lagway's 180 reflects how tightly matched the quarterback play figures to be, yet BYU's receiving corps—led by Legend Glasker at 40 yards—projects to generate more explosive plays downfield than Baylor's top receiver Gavin Freeman at the same yardage. The game turns on whether Baylor's defence can disrupt Bachmeier's timing; in 2,501 graded games where AccuScore favoured one side this heavily, that side won 66% of the time. For the travelling Bears to pull the upset, their passing attack would need to sustain drives without the kind of big plays the simulation expects from BYU's receivers.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | BYU | EV | BAY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7 | -115 | -4.0% | -105 | -0.3% |
| Book | BYU | EV | BAY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -285 | -3.8% | +230 | +2.1% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -322 | -5.2% | +229 | +2.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -393 | -7.1% | -541 | -31.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | -3.4% | -110 | -1.1% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 31.6%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes BYU 68% to beat Baylor (32%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes BYU the more likely winner at 68%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives BYU a 68% chance of beating Baylor, against 32% for Baylor. BYU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Baylor (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.0–5.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
BYU (7-1 so far) project to finish 9.3–2.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 35% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Baylor and BYU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Baylor have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
BYU have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Baylor 1, BYU 2. The last meeting, on Sep 28, 2024, finished BYU 34, Baylor 28.
Baylor are 72-23 as favourite and 24-40 as underdog, and 44-39 on the road (53% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
BYU are 77-24 as favourite and 26-33 as underdog, and 60-22 at home (73% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BAY | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 72-23 | 77-24 |
| As underdog | 24-40 | 26-33 |
| At home | 58-27 | 60-22 |
| On the road | 44-39 | 49-38 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →