NCAAF
Cincinnati
5-3
Iowa State
4-4
Win Probability
Cincinnati travels to Iowa State as a slight underdog in a game the simulation favors the Cyclones to win. JC French IV projects to 200 passing yards for Cincinnati while Iowa State's Jaylen Raynor reaches 190, a marginal difference that reflects how evenly matched the offenses figure to be. The deciding factor is Iowa State's ground game: Aiden Flora's projected 75 rushing yards against Cincinnati's Gi'Bran Payne at 45 represents the clearest gap between the teams' offensive capabilities. On games shaped this way—where the home team holds a clear but not overwhelming edge—AccuScore's model won 55% of 2,697 graded contests. Cincinnati would need to generate significantly more production from its rushing attack or force Iowa State into an aerial-dependent game plan to overcome the hosts' advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ISU | EV | CIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.4% |
| Book | ISU | EV | CIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -130 | +2.0% | +108 | -7.2% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -148 | -0.7% | -107 | -10.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -371 | -12.7% | -332 | -23.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 57.5 | -114 | +0.2% | -106 | -4.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 58.8%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State 59% to beat Cincinnati (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Iowa State a 59% chance of beating Cincinnati, against 41% for Cincinnati. Iowa State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Cincinnati (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.6–5.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Iowa State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.9–6.1 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 6.6–5.4 | <1% | 1% |
| Iowa State | 5.9–6.1 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Cincinnati and Iowa State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cincinnati have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Iowa State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2024: Cincinnati 1, Iowa State 1. The last meeting, on Oct 4, 2025, finished Iowa State 30, Cincinnati 38.
Cincinnati are 86-18 as favourite and 16-38 as underdog, and 47-37 on the road (56% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
Iowa State are 45-16 as favourite and 24-71 as underdog, and 44-41 at home (52% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CIN | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 86-18 | 45-16 |
| As underdog | 16-38 | 24-71 |
| At home | 59-24 | 44-41 |
| On the road | 47-37 | 31-51 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →