Kansas
3-5
West Virginia
5-3
Win Probability
Kansas travels to Morgantown to face West Virginia in a Big 12 matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Michael Hawkins Jr. is projected for 180 passing yards for West Virginia, while Kansas counterpart Isaiah Marshall projects to 190—a close match that masks a wider gap in execution. The game hinges on ground game efficiency: Cam Cook's projected 80 rushing yards for West Virginia against Dylan Edwards' 70 for Kansas represents the margin where the Mountaineers' advantage compounds. On games shaped this way historically, the favored side won 66 percent of the time. For Kansas to pull the upset, it would need Edwards and its receivers to exceed their projections while holding Cook well below his.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | WVU | EV | KU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -4.5 | -105 | -3.2% | -115 | -1.3% |
| Book | WVU | EV | KU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -188 | -3.4% | +155 | -0.1% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -175 | -2.2% | +140 | -3.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -285 | -8.9% | +106 | -9.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 68.5 | -105 | -0.4% | -115 | -4.1% |
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Kansas (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.9–7.1 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
West Virginia (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 4.9–7.1 | 0% | <1% |
| West Virginia | 6.1–5.9 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes West Virginia 61% to beat Kansas (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes West Virginia the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives West Virginia a 61% chance of beating Kansas, against 39% for Kansas. West Virginia are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Kansas and West Virginia come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Kansas have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
West Virginia have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2012: Kansas 3, West Virginia 10. The last meeting, on Sep 20, 2025, finished West Virginia 10, Kansas 41.
Kansas are 8-11 as favourite and 15-117 as underdog, and 7-73 on the road (9% of 80 games, 2011–2026).
West Virginia are 52-27 as favourite and 26-51 as underdog, and 46-37 at home (55% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | KU | WVU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 8-11 | 52-27 |
| As underdog | 15-117 | 26-51 |
| At home | 21-58 | 46-37 |
| On the road | 7-73 | 37-46 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →