NCAAF
Kansas State
4-4
TCU
4-5
Win Probability
Kansas State travels to Fort Worth to face TCU in a matchup the model decisively favors the home side. Joe Jackson's projected 45 rushing yards will need to anchor the Wildcats' ground game, while TCU's passing attack, led by Jaden Craig's 200 projected yards, gives the Horned Frogs multiple paths to victory. The deciding factor comes down to whether Kansas State can generate enough explosive plays through the air—Jaron Tibbs is projected for just 35 receiving yards—to keep pace with TCU's balanced approach. In 2,212 games where the model leaned this heavily in one direction, the favored side won 76% of the time. An upset would require the Wildcats to exceed their offensive projections significantly while forcing TCU into uncharacteristic inefficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | TCU | EV | KSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -8.5 | -105 | -0.6% | -115 | -3.8% |
| Book | TCU | EV | KSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -310 | -2.4% | +250 | -1.0% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -322 | -2.8% | +208 | -6.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -680 | -8.7% | -1736 | -35.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 46.5 | -112 | -2.3% | -108 | -2.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes TCU 72% to beat Kansas State (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes TCU the more likely winner at 72%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives TCU a 72% chance of beating Kansas State, against 28% for Kansas State. TCU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Kansas State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.6–6.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
TCU (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.4–6.6 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 5.6–6.4 | 0% | <1% |
| TCU | 5.4–6.6 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Kansas State and TCU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Kansas State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
TCU have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2012: Kansas State 8, TCU 5. The last meeting, on Oct 11, 2025, finished TCU 28, Kansas State 41.
Kansas State are 62-17 as favourite and 30-50 as underdog, and 39-39 on the road (50% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
TCU are 73-32 as favourite and 20-35 as underdog, and 54-34 at home (61% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | KSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 62-17 | 73-32 |
| As underdog | 30-50 | 20-35 |
| At home | 60-31 | 54-34 |
| On the road | 39-39 | 47-34 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →