NCAAF
Texas Tech
7-0
Oklahoma State
5-0
Win Probability
Texas Tech travels to Oklahoma State in a matchup between unbeaten sides where the simulation leans slightly toward the visiting Red Raiders. Drew Mestemaker projects for 220 passing yards for Oklahoma State, while Texas Tech's Thomas Castellanos is expected to manage only 110—a gap that will shape how each offense operates. The game turns on whether Oklahoma State can overcome that disparity in volume through the ground game, where Caleb Hawkins is projected for 75 rushing yards. AccuScore's model favored sides in this win-probability range in 55% of 2,688 graded games. For Oklahoma State to pull the upset at home, the Cowboys would need Mestemaker's arm to stretch the field and Hawkins to impose himself early enough to control tempo.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | OKST | EV | TTU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -115 | -6.6% | -105 | +2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -112 | -6.1% | -108 | +1.6% |
| Book | OKST | EV | TTU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -105 | -7.2% | -115 | +2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -106 | -7.4% | -113 | +3.0% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -103 | -6.8% | -121 | +1.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -27.9% | -10969 | -21.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 63.5 | -110 | -1.6% | -110 | -3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 64.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 56.2%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Tech 56% to beat Oklahoma State (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Tech the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oklahoma State a 44% chance of beating Texas Tech, against 56% for Texas Tech. Oklahoma State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Texas Tech (7-1 so far) project to finish 9.5–2.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 39% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oklahoma State (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.3–4.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 9.5–2.5 | 13% | 39% |
| Oklahoma State | 7.3–4.7 | <1% | 4% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Texas Tech and Oklahoma State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas Tech have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Oklahoma State have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Oklahoma State are 80-25 as favourite and 22-34 as underdog, and 60-30 at home (67% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TTU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | — | 80-25 |
| As underdog | — | 22-34 |
| At home | — | 60-30 |
| On the road | — | 44-37 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →