NCAAF
Utah
8-0
Arizona
6-0
Win Probability
Utah travels to Arizona as two undefeated teams square off, with AccuScore's simulation leaning slightly toward the visiting Utes. Devon Dampier projects for 190 passing yards for Utah while Noah Fifita is expected to reach 200 through the air for Arizona, a marginal difference that reflects how tightly matched these offenses appear in the model's 50,000 simulations. The decisive factor is execution in the passing game: Isaiah Mizell's projected 50 receiving yards for Arizona against Braden Pegan's 35 for Utah illustrate where the model sees Utah's slight advantage. On similar matchups, AccuScore's favored side won 55% of the time across 2,688 graded games. Arizona would need to exceed those passing projections and force Utah into inefficiency to overturn the simulation's lean.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ARIZ | EV | UTAH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | +1.5 | -141 | -10.5% | -141 | -4.0% |
| Book | ARIZ | EV | UTAH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +109 | -4.8% | -175 | -5.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -28.2% | -10969 | -21.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Utah 57% to beat Arizona (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arizona a 43% chance of beating Utah, against 57% for Utah. Arizona are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Utah (8-0 so far) project to finish 10.7–1.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 75% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arizona (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.4–3.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Utah and Arizona come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Utah have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Arizona have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Utah 7, Arizona 5. The last meeting, on Sep 27, 2024, finished Arizona 23, Utah 10.
Utah are 84-25 as favourite and 18-28 as underdog, and 51-35 on the road (59% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
Arizona are 47-19 as favourite and 22-64 as underdog, and 45-39 at home (54% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UTAH | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 84-25 | 47-19 |
| As underdog | 18-28 | 22-64 |
| At home | 53-25 | 45-39 |
| On the road | 51-35 | 25-52 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →