#23South Carolina
5-3
Arkansas
3-5
Win Probability
South Carolina travels to face Arkansas in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Gamecocks. The visitor's advantage hinges on offensive execution: South Carolina's quarterback has a 68% chance of exceeding 285 passing yards, while Arkansas's running back sits at a 55% chance of breaking 95 yards on the ground. In games where the model has leaned this strongly toward the away side, the favored team won 76% of the time across 2,211 graded contests. For Arkansas to pull the upset at home, the Razorbacks' defense would need to disrupt South Carolina's passing attack and establish sustained ground control.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ARK | EV | SC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | +7.5 | -150 | -13.2% | -150 | -3.5% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +7.5 | -143 | -12.5% | -165 | -5.2% |
| Book | ARK | EV | SC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +266 | -2.4% | -322 | -1.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +127 | -20.5% | -771 | -8.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 50.5 | -150 | -4.0% | -150 | -12.7% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes South Carolina 74% to beat Arkansas (26%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Carolina the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arkansas a 26% chance of beating South Carolina, against 74% for South Carolina. Arkansas are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
South Carolina (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.4–4.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arkansas (3-5 so far) project to finish 3.7–8.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 7.4–4.6 | <1% | 8% |
| Arkansas | 3.7–8.3 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How South Carolina and Arkansas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
South Carolina have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Arkansas have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2011: South Carolina 3, Arkansas 2. The last meeting, on Sep 10, 2022, finished South Carolina 30, Arkansas 44.
South Carolina are 55-19 as favourite and 29-55 as underdog, and 28-44 on the road (39% of 72 games, 2011–2026).
Arkansas are 39-19 as favourite and 21-75 as underdog, and 48-45 at home (52% of 93 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SC | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 55-19 | 39-19 |
| As underdog | 29-55 | 21-75 |
| At home | 63-32 | 48-45 |
| On the road | 28-44 | 16-53 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →