Missouri
6-0
Georgia
7-0
Win Probability
An undefeated Missouri team travels to face undefeated Georgia, and the simulation decisively favors the home side. Gunner Stockton's projected 180 passing yards will need to sustain Georgia's offense, while Austin Simmons must match that efficiency for Missouri—the game turns on whether the visiting Tigers can generate enough passing production to keep pace. In 1,760 games where the model leaned this strongly to one side, that side won 86 percent of the time. For Missouri to pull the upset, Cayden Lee would need to exceed his projected 50 receiving yards and force Georgia into negative script situations where the Bulldogs cannot establish the run.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | UGA | EV | MIZ | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -12.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -12.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.7% |
| Book | UGA | EV | MIZ | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -470 | -1.1% | +360 | -5.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -520 | -2.0% | +390 | -2.5% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -490 | -1.5% | +296 | -11.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -812 | -4.7% | -417 | -38.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 46.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | -3.1% | -110 | -1.5% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia 81% to beat Missouri (19%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia the more likely winner at 81%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Georgia a 81% chance of beating Missouri, against 19% for Missouri. Georgia are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Missouri (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.0–4.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Georgia (7-1 so far) project to finish 10.0–2.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Missouri and Georgia come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Missouri have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Georgia have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 10 times since 2012: Missouri 1, Georgia 9. The last meeting, on Oct 1, 2022, finished Georgia 26, Missouri 22.
Missouri are 64-20 as favourite and 24-49 as underdog, and 34-43 on the road (44% of 77 games, 2011–2026).
Georgia are 120-23 as favourite and 9-14 as underdog, and 79-22 at home (78% of 101 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MIZ | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 64-20 | 120-23 |
| As underdog | 24-49 | 9-14 |
| At home | 61-29 | 79-22 |
| On the road | 34-43 | 58-16 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →