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NCAAF

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Live Score

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET

← Today's Edges
NCAAF•Sat, Nov 14 • 5:00 AMSilver Edge
FLA

Florida

5-0

VS
UK

Kentucky

7-0

Win Probability

Moneyline

FLA

+105

43.6% win prob

EV -5.3%

DraftKings

Moneyline

UK

-122

56.4% win prob

EV +1.3%

FanDuel

Analysis

Kentucky hosts Florida in a matchup between undefeated teams where the simulation leans slightly toward the Wildcats. Kenny Minchey's projected 200 passing yards will anchor Kentucky's attack, while Tramell Jones Jr. figures for just 140 through the air for the Gators—a gap that could prove decisive in a game that shapes up as a low-scoring grind. The outcome hinges on ground efficiency: Jason Patterson's projected 50 rushing yards for Kentucky against Jadan Baugh's 60 for Florida suggests this will be won in the trenches by whoever sustains drives better. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side won 55% of the time across 2,688 graded contests. For Florida to pull the upset, the Gators would need Jones and Baugh to outpace their projections while Kentucky's offensive contributors—Kenny Darby and Willie Rodriguez—underperform their receiving expectations.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Point SpreadUK -1.5
39.5-1.75-43
FLA Cover
46.7%
EV -4.4%
-105DraftKings ↗
UK Cover
53.3%
EV -0.2%
-115DraftKings ↗
Total (Over/Under)O/U 55.5
2062.5105
Over Cover
52.7%
EV +0.3%
-110DraftKings ↗
Under Cover
47.3%
EV -4.9%
-110DraftKings ↗

1st Half

AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.

Leads at the half

42.7%FLA
Tied 7.8%
UK49.5%
1st Half SpreadUK -0.5
24-1-26
FLA Cover
50.5%
no odds at this line
UK Cover
49.5%
no odds at this line
1st Half Total (Over/Under)1H O/U 28
42954
Over Cover
48.9%
no odds at this line
Under Cover
47.0%
no odds at this line
Push 4.1% — stake returned if it lands exactly on the total

Player Props

UK FLA
Sort:

Odds Comparison

Spread

BookLineUKEVFLAEV
DraftKings ↗-1.5-115-0.2%-105-4.4%
FanDuel ↗-2.5-105-1.1%-115-3.3%

Moneyline

BookUKEVFLAEV
DraftKings ↗-125+0.8%+105-5.3%
FanDuel ↗-122+1.3%+102-6.0%
Kalshi ↗-161-4.3%+105-5.3%
Polymarket ↗-299-12.4%-285-20.6%

Total (O/U)

BookLineOverEV (O)UnderEV (U)
DraftKings ↗55.5-110+0.3%-110-4.9%
FanDuel ↗54.5-114+2.1%-106-6.8%

Where to Bet

silver
UK ML+1.3% EV

Win probability: 56.4%

FanDuel
-122Bet →
DraftKings
-125Bet →
Kalshi
-161Bet →
Polymarket
-299Bet →

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AccuScore's simulation makes Kentucky 56% to beat Florida (44%).

Projection updated Nov 7, 2:50 AM ET

Who will win Florida vs Kentucky?

AccuScore's simulation makes Kentucky the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Kentucky beat Florida?

AccuScore's simulation gives Kentucky a 56% chance of beating Florida, against 44% for Florida. Kentucky are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Every Florida vs Kentucky meeting →Florida predictions & record →Kentucky predictions & record →

Season outlook

Florida (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.6–4.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

Kentucky (7-1 so far) project to finish 8.9–3.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 26% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

TeamProjected recordDivision titlePlayoffs
Florida7.6–4.4<1%10%
Kentucky8.9–3.17%26%

From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Florida and Kentucky come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

FloridaLWLLW
  • Oct 31at GeorgiaL 8–27
  • Oct 17at TexasW 27–24
  • Oct 10vs South CarolinaL 19–38
  • Oct 3at MissouriL 17–45
  • Sep 26vs Ole MissW 52–28

Florida have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).

KentuckyWWWWW
  • Oct 24vs VanderbiltW 34–17
  • Oct 17at OklahomaW 21–13
  • Oct 10vs LSUW 35–34
  • Oct 3at South CarolinaW 35–34
  • Sep 26vs South AlabamaW 45–21

Kentucky have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Florida 9, Kentucky 4. The last meeting, on Nov 7, 2025, finished Florida 7, Kentucky 38.

  • Nov 7, 2025FLA 7 – 38 UK
  • Oct 19, 2024UK 20 – 48 FLA
  • Sep 10, 2022UK 26 – 18 FLA
  • Oct 2, 2021FLA 13 – 20 UK
  • Sep 14, 2019FLA 29 – 21 UK
Every Florida vs Kentucky meeting →

Betting trends

Florida are 72-27 as favourite and 19-40 as underdog, and 36-40 on the road (47% of 76 games, 2011–2026).

Kentucky are 46-14 as favourite and 28-68 as underdog, and 52-41 at home (56% of 93 games, 2011–2026).

RecordFLAUK
As favourite72-2746-14
As underdog19-4028-68
At home59-3052-41
On the road36-4022-47

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →