NCAAF
Texas
6-0
LSU
6-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Texas travels to face undefeated LSU in a matchup the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Both Arch Manning and Sam Leavitt are projected for 180 passing yards, but the Tigers' ground game offers a structural advantage: Dilin Jones projects for 60 rushing yards against Texas's Raleek Brown at 55. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side won 66 percent of the time across 2,501 graded contests. For Texas to pull the upset, the Longhorns would need to generate explosive plays through their receiving corps—Ryan Wingo and Jermaine Bishop Jr. are each projected for 30 yards—while containing LSU's balanced attack.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | LSU | EV | TEX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -5.5 | -115 | -4.8% | -105 | +0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -6.5 | -102 | -4.8% | -120 | -0.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5.5 | -135 | -7.9% | -152 | -7.2% |
| Book | LSU | EV | TEX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -198 | -1.8% | +164 | -2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -205 | -2.4% | +168 | -1.8% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -218 | -3.3% | +159 | -3.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -371 | -9.4% | -2105 | -31.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 46.5 | -110 | -1.3% | -110 | -3.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 45.5 | -115 | -0.1% | -105 | -4.5% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes LSU 64% to beat Texas (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes LSU the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives LSU a 64% chance of beating Texas, against 36% for Texas. LSU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Texas (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.5–3.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 42% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
LSU (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.8–3.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 52% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Texas and LSU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
LSU have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2019: Texas 0, LSU 1. The last meeting, on Sep 7, 2019, finished LSU 45, Texas 38.
Texas are 76-30 as favourite and 20-41 as underdog, and 39-39 on the road (50% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
LSU are 93-24 as favourite and 17-23 as underdog, and 77-21 at home (79% of 98 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TEX | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 76-30 | 93-24 |
| As underdog | 20-41 | 17-23 |
| At home | 70-34 | 77-21 |
| On the road | 39-39 | 39-29 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →