NCAAF
Auburn
4-4
Mississippi State
4-4
Win Probability
Auburn travels to Mississippi State in a matchup of evenly matched 4-4 teams where the simulation leans toward the Tigers. The outcome hinges on Auburn's passing attack: Byrum Brown is projected for 190 yards, while Mississippi State's Anthony Evans III and Sanfrisco Magee are expected to combine for 80 receiving yards. Auburn's ground game, led by Jeremiah Cobb's 45 projected yards, must establish itself against a Mississippi State defense that figures to key on the pass. In games shaped like this one statistically, AccuScore's favored side won 55 percent of the time across a large sample. Mississippi State would need to generate significantly more offensive production than the model expects to pull off the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MSST | EV | AUB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +3.5 | -112 | +1.8% | -108 | -6.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +3.5 | -115 | +1.2% | -105 | -5.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +3.5 | -166 | -6.1% | -166 | -13.7% |
| Book | MSST | EV | AUB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +132 | +1.0% | -160 | -4.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +135 | +1.7% | -160 | -4.5% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +146 | +4.1% | -182 | -6.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +121 | -1.4% | -204 | -8.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 49.5 | -10969 | -24.1% | -10969 | -25.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 44.0%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Auburn 56% to beat Mississippi State (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Auburn the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Mississippi State a 44% chance of beating Auburn, against 56% for Auburn. Mississippi State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Auburn (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.4–5.6 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Mississippi State (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.3–5.7 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn | 6.4–5.6 | 0% | <1% |
| Mississippi State | 6.3–5.7 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Auburn and Mississippi State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Auburn have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Mississippi State have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Auburn are 67-25 as favourite and 19-52 as underdog, and 22-43 on the road (34% of 65 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 67-25 | — |
| As underdog | 19-52 | — |
| At home | 67-37 | — |
| On the road | 22-43 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →