NCAAF
#12Ole Miss
6-2
Oklahoma
4-4
Win Probability
Ole Miss travels to Norman to face Oklahoma in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the Rebels. Trinidad Chambliss's projected 200 passing yards will need to translate into points, while Oklahoma's John Mateer is expected to manage 190 through the air in a game that could turn on field position and third-down conversion rates—the simulation shows this one genuinely close to a toss-up. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model won 55% of the time across 2,697 graded contests. For Oklahoma to pull the upset at home, the Sooners would need Isaiah Sategna III to exceed his projected 45 receiving yards and their ground game to impose itself early.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | OU | EV | MISS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | -105 | -1.9% | -115 | -2.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +2.5 | -172 | -11.0% | -172 | -9.9% |
| Book | OU | EV | MISS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +110 | -4.7% | -130 | +0.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +112 | -4.3% | -132 | +0.0% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +109 | -5.0% | -136 | -0.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -28.3% | -10969 | -21.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 56.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Ole Miss 57% to beat Oklahoma (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ole Miss the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oklahoma a 43% chance of beating Ole Miss, against 57% for Ole Miss. Oklahoma are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Ole Miss (6-2 so far) project to finish 9.0–3.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 47% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oklahoma (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.5–6.5 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Ole Miss and Oklahoma come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Ole Miss have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Oklahoma have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Ole Miss 0, Oklahoma 1. The last meeting, on Oct 25, 2025, finished Ole Miss 26, Oklahoma 34.
Ole Miss are 61-21 as favourite and 18-50 as underdog, and 29-39 on the road (43% of 68 games, 2011–2026).
Oklahoma are 120-29 as favourite and 13-11 as underdog, and 77-23 at home (77% of 100 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MISS | OU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 61-21 | 120-29 |
| As underdog | 18-50 | 13-11 |
| At home | 50-34 | 77-23 |
| On the road | 29-39 | 59-22 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →