#16Tennessee
6-2
Texas A&M
4-4
Win Probability
Tennessee travels to Texas A&M as the favored side in a matchup that hinges on passing game efficiency. The Volunteers' George MacIntyre is projected for 140 passing yards against a Texas A&M defense that expects to hold Marcel Reed to 160 yards through the air. DeSean Bishop's projected 80 rushing yards for Tennessee will be critical; the Aggies' ground game, led by KJ Edwards at 50 yards, suggests the visitor has the edge in movement. AccuScore's simulation of games shaped like this one, where the favored side carried a similar probability, saw the favored team win 55% of the time across 2,697 graded games. Texas A&M would need Tennessee's passing attack to stall and its own ground game to find unexpected production for the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | TA&M | EV | TENN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +3 | -105 | -2.1% | -115 | -2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +3.5 | -120 | -2.9% | -102 | -1.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +3.5 | -197 | -11.2% | -10969 | -25.5% |
| Book | TA&M | EV | TENN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +130 | -2.5% | -155 | -1.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +130 | -2.5% | -156 | -1.8% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +134 | -1.7% | -167 | -3.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -225 | -20.2% | -471 | -14.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 43.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 42.5 | -108 | +0.3% | -112 | -4.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 49.5 | -10969 | -32.1% | -10969 | -17.4% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Tennessee 59% to beat Texas A&M (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tennessee the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas A&M a 41% chance of beating Tennessee, against 59% for Tennessee. Texas A&M are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Tennessee (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.2–3.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas A&M (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.7–6.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Tennessee and Texas A&M come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tennessee have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Texas A&M have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2016: Tennessee 0, Texas A&M 1. The last meeting, on Oct 8, 2016, finished Tennessee 38, Texas A&M 45.
Tennessee are 59-24 as favourite and 14-55 as underdog, and 24-47 on the road (34% of 71 games, 2011–2026).
Texas A&M are 81-26 as favourite and 14-36 as underdog, and 66-31 at home (68% of 97 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TENN | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 59-24 | 81-26 |
| As underdog | 14-55 | 14-36 |
| At home | 58-34 | 66-31 |
| On the road | 24-47 | 33-35 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →