#9Alabama
6-2
Vanderbilt
3-5
Win Probability
Alabama travels to Nashville favored decisively over Vanderbilt. The simulation hinges on offensive efficiency: Keelon Russell projects 210 passing yards for Alabama while Jared Curtis reaches only 160 for the Commodores, a gap that compounds across four quarters. Trae'shawn Brown's projected 60 rushing yards against Junior Sherrill's 50 receiving yards for Vanderbilt underscores where the execution separates them. AccuScore's model won 86% of 1,769 games shaped this way. For Vanderbilt to stay closer than projected, Curtis would need to sustain drives despite the talent gap, and the defense would have to pressure Russell into uncharacteristic mistakes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | VAN | EV | ALA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +19.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -4.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +18.5 | -105 | -2.8% | -115 | -1.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +19.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -4.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +6.5 | -10969 | -39.3% | -10969 | -10.3% |
| Book | VAN | EV | ALA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +800 | -2.8% | -1350 | -1.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +760 | -4.9% | -1250 | -1.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +800 | -2.8% | -1300 | -1.8% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +756 | -5.1% | -967 | -0.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +637 | -11.3% | -1210 | -1.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 49.5 | -10969 | -17.3% | -10969 | -32.3% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Alabama 90% to beat Vanderbilt (11%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Alabama the more likely winner at 90%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Vanderbilt a 11% chance of beating Alabama, against 90% for Alabama. Vanderbilt are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Alabama (6-2 so far) project to finish 9.1–2.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 57% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Vanderbilt (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.0–8.0 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9.1–2.9 | 7% | 57% |
| Vanderbilt | 4.0–8.0 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Alabama and Vanderbilt come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Alabama have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Vanderbilt have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2011: Alabama 4, Vanderbilt 1. The last meeting, on Oct 4, 2025, finished Vanderbilt 14, Alabama 30.
Alabama are 140-22 as favourite and 8-2 as underdog, and 60-15 on the road (80% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
Vanderbilt are 34-14 as favourite and 26-82 as underdog, and 40-49 at home (45% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ALA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 140-22 | 34-14 |
| As underdog | 8-2 | 26-82 |
| At home | 93-12 | 40-49 |
| On the road | 60-15 | 24-51 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →