Duke
6-2
#1Miami Hurricanes
8-0
Win Probability
Miami Hurricanes host Duke in a game where the simulation strongly favors the home side. Darian Mensah's projected 200 passing yards will need to translate into consistent offensive execution, while Duke's Walker Eget faces the task of keeping pace with only 180 yards of his own. The game turns on Miami's rushing attack—Mark Fletcher Jr. and the supporting ground game project to control the line of scrimmage in ways Duke's Nate Sheppard may struggle to match. AccuScore's model has favored sides this decisively in 1,769 past games and won 86 percent of them. For Duke to pull off the upset, it would need the Blue Devils' passing game to exceed projections significantly while Miami's run game stalls.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MIA | EV | DUKE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -15.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -15.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -7.5 | -10969 | -15.0% | -10969 | -34.5% |
| Book | MIA | EV | DUKE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -700 | -1.8% | +500 | -2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -670 | -1.6% | +480 | -4.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -700 | -1.8% | +500 | -2.9% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -660 | -1.5% | +490 | -3.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -771 | -2.4% | +500 | -2.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 53.5 | -118 | +2.7% | -104 | -7.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.5% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Hurricanes 84% to beat Duke (16%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Hurricanes the more likely winner at 84%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Miami Hurricanes a 84% chance of beating Duke, against 16% for Duke. Miami Hurricanes are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Duke (6-2 so far) project to finish 7.5–4.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Miami Hurricanes (8-0 so far) project to finish 11.1–0.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 7.5–4.5 | <1% | 2% |
| Miami Hurricanes | 11.1–0.9 | 98% | 93% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Duke and Miami Hurricanes come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Duke have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Miami Hurricanes have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Duke 4, Miami Hurricanes 8. The last meeting, on Nov 2, 2024, finished Duke 31, Miami Hurricanes 53.
Duke are 48-25 as favourite and 33-56 as underdog, and 42-43 on the road (49% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
Miami Hurricanes are 79-33 as favourite and 19-31 as underdog, and 58-26 at home (69% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | DUKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 48-25 | 79-33 |
| As underdog | 33-56 | 19-31 |
| At home | 44-40 | 58-26 |
| On the road | 42-43 | 45-41 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →