Louisville
5-0
North Carolina
4-0
Win Probability
Louisville travels to Chapel Hill as the simulation's clear favorite, though North Carolina's undefeated record at home makes this competitive. Billy Edwards Jr. projects for 220 passing yards for the Tar Heels against a Louisville defense that will lean on Isaac Brown's anticipated 70 rushing yards to control pace. The contest hinges on whether North Carolina can establish its ground game; when AccuScore's model has favored a side this strongly across similar matchups, that side won 75 percent of the time. For the Tar Heels to pull off the upset, they would need Tre Richardson and the Louisville passing attack to stay well short of their 50-yard receiving projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | UNC | EV | LOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.2% |
| Book | UNC | EV | LOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +114 | -5.5% | -135 | +0.8% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +109 | -6.5% | -175 | -4.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | -28.8% | -316 | -11.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 59.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville 58% to beat North Carolina (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives North Carolina a 42% chance of beating Louisville, against 58% for Louisville. North Carolina are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Louisville (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.5–4.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
North Carolina (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.2–5.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 7.5–4.5 | <1% | 7% |
| North Carolina | 6.2–5.8 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Louisville and North Carolina come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Louisville have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
North Carolina have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2011: Louisville 2, North Carolina 1. The last meeting, on Sep 9, 2017, finished Louisville 47, North Carolina 35.
Louisville are 76-30 as favourite and 17-40 as underdog, and 45-39 on the road (54% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
North Carolina are 56-29 as favourite and 17-52 as underdog, and 42-41 at home (51% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | LOU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 76-30 | 56-29 |
| As underdog | 17-40 | 17-52 |
| At home | 54-33 | 42-41 |
| On the road | 45-39 | 36-45 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →