NCAAF
Syracuse
4-4
NC State
4-4
Win Probability
Syracuse travels to NC State in an evenly matched contest between two 4-4 teams, with the simulation favoring the Orange slightly. The game hinges on passing volume: NC State quarterback CJ Bailey is projected for 200 yards, nearly 2.5 times the 80 yards AccuScore expects from Syracuse's Steve Angeli, a gap that reflects fundamentally different offensive approaches. On the ground, Syracuse running back Ahmad Miller's 60 projected yards will need to generate pressure that the passing game cannot. In games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 55 percent of the time across nearly 2,700 graded matchups. NC State would need to control tempo and keep Bailey efficient to overcome the projection favoring the visitors.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | NCSU | EV | SYR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | -112 | +0.9% | -108 | -5.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -4.5 | -10969 | -31.9% | -10969 | -17.6% |
| Book | NCSU | EV | SYR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +102 | -2.6% | -122 | -1.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -300 | -18.7% | -158 | -6.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 55.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 47.5 | -10969 | -15.3% | -10969 | -34.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Syracuse 53% to beat NC State (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Syracuse the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives NC State a 47% chance of beating Syracuse, against 53% for Syracuse. NC State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Syracuse (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.5–6.5 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
NC State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.7–6.3 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Syracuse and NC State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Syracuse have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
NC State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 10 times since 2013: Syracuse 4, NC State 6. The last meeting, on Oct 11, 2024, finished Syracuse 24, NC State 17.
Syracuse are 31-14 as favourite and 31-79 as underdog, and 28-49 on the road (36% of 77 games, 2011–2026).
NC State are 65-19 as favourite and 20-55 as underdog, and 57-32 at home (64% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SYR | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 31-14 | 65-19 |
| As underdog | 31-79 | 20-55 |
| At home | 40-46 | 57-32 |
| On the road | 28-49 | 31-47 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →