NCAAF
#14Wake Forest
8-0
SMU
7-2
Win Probability
Wake Forest travels to SMU in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the Demon Deacons. Kevin Jennings will need to establish SMU's passing game—the model projects him for 200 yards—while Wake Forest's Ty Clark III figures to control tempo on the ground with an expected 60 rushing yards. The decisive factor is whether SMU can generate consistent offensive rhythm; AccuScore's model leans Wake Forest, and on games shaped this way across different matchups, the favored side won 5 of 8. For SMU to pull the upset at home, Kendrick Raphael would need to move the ball effectively on the ground beyond his projected 70 rushing yards and force Wake Forest into mistakes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | SMU | EV | WAKE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | -8.9% | -110 | +4.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | -112 | -9.3% | -108 | +4.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | -8.9% | -110 | +4.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +3.5 | -332 | -19.1% | -197 | -10.5% |
| Book | SMU | EV | WAKE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +110 | -9.8% | -130 | +4.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +108 | -10.2% | -130 | +4.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +110 | -9.8% | -130 | +4.6% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +105 | -10.7% | -126 | +5.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -105 | -12.6% | -140 | +2.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 61.5 | -110 | -3.2% | -110 | -1.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 62.5 | -114 | -6.0% | -106 | +1.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 61.5 | -110 | -3.2% | -110 | -1.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 71.5 | -10969 | -36.9% | -10969 | -12.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 61.7%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Wake Forest 62% to beat SMU (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wake Forest the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives SMU a 38% chance of beating Wake Forest, against 62% for Wake Forest. SMU are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Wake Forest (7-1 so far) project to finish 10.2–1.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 55% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
SMU (7-2 so far) project to finish 8.3–3.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | 10.2–1.8 | 2% | 55% |
| SMU | 8.3–3.7 | <1% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Wake Forest and SMU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Wake Forest have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
SMU have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Wake Forest 0, SMU 1. The last meeting, on Oct 25, 2025, finished SMU 13, Wake Forest 12.
Wake Forest are 45-13 as favourite and 29-67 as underdog, and 38-44 on the road (46% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
SMU are 58-13 as favourite and 21-66 as underdog, and 50-32 at home (61% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WAKE | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 45-13 | 58-13 |
| As underdog | 29-67 | 21-66 |
| At home | 40-41 | 50-32 |
| On the road | 38-44 | 36-49 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →