#18USC
7-2
#6Indiana Hoosiers
8-1
Win Probability
Indiana Hoosiers host USC in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Hoosiers' defence will need to contain USC's passing game; the visitors project to move the ball through the air effectively enough to reach 21 points, but Indiana's offence is modeled to pull away late. In games where AccuScore has leaned this heavily toward one side, that side won 76% of the time across 2,211 graded contests. For USC to escape Bloomington with an upset, the Hoosiers' offence would need to stall significantly below its projected output, allowing the visitors' defence to keep pace in a lower-scoring affair than the model anticipates.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | IU | EV | USC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7 | -115 | +3.0% | -105 | -7.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7.5 | +100 | +5.3% | -122 | -9.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -7 | -115 | +3.0% | -105 | -7.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -7.5 | -160 | -5.0% | -181 | -15.3% |
| Book | IU | EV | USC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -270 | +0.6% | +220 | -8.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -275 | +0.3% | +225 | -7.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -285 | -0.2% | +230 | -6.8% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -250 | +1.7% | +217 | -8.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -258 | +1.2% | +212 | -9.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | +1.1% | -110 | -5.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | +1.1% | -110 | -5.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | +1.1% | -110 | -5.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 49.5 | -417 | -16.8% | -417 | -21.2% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana Hoosiers 74% to beat USC (26%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana Hoosiers the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Indiana Hoosiers a 74% chance of beating USC, against 26% for USC. Indiana Hoosiers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
USC (7-2 so far) project to finish 8.6–3.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Indiana Hoosiers (8-1 so far) project to finish 10.4–1.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 8.6–3.4 | 3% | 18% |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 10.4–1.6 | 43% | 85% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How USC and Indiana Hoosiers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
USC have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Indiana Hoosiers have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
USC are 98-25 as favourite and 10-32 as underdog, and 44-39 on the road (53% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
Indiana Hoosiers are 60-14 as favourite and 10-73 as underdog, and 43-42 at home (51% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | USC | IU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 98-25 | 60-14 |
| As underdog | 10-32 | 10-73 |
| At home | 72-24 | 43-42 |
| On the road | 44-39 | 32-47 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →