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NCAAF

Purdue vs Iowa Prediction, Odds & Live Score

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 7:30 PM ET

← Today's Edges
NCAAF•Sun, Nov 15 • 12:30 AMSilver Edge
PUR

Purdue

3-5

VS
IOWA

#21Iowa

6-2

Win Probability

Moneyline

PUR

+570

11.6% win prob

EV -11.1%

FanDuel

Moneyline

IOWA

-719

88.4% win prob

EV +0.3%

Kalshi

Analysis

Iowa hosts Purdue in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the home side. Ryan Browne's projected 170 passing yards will need to move the ball efficiently for Purdue to stay competitive, while Iowa's Xavier Williams is expected to contribute 50 rushing yards as part of a balanced offensive attack. The game hinges on Purdue's ability to generate explosive plays downfield—Asaad Waseem's projection of 35 receiving yards suggests the Boilermakers will struggle to move the ball consistently. AccuScore's model has favored one side this decisively in 1,769 past games and won 86% of them. For Purdue to pull off the upset, it would need significantly better efficiency from its passing game and field position advantages that the projections do not suggest.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Point SpreadIOWA -16.5
23.5-17.75-59
PUR Cover
45.3%
EV -7.1%
-112FanDuel ↗
IOWA Cover
54.7%
EV +2.7%
-108FanDuel ↗
Total (Over/Under)O/U 45.5
145494
Over Cover
55.2%
EV +2.7%
-110FanDuel ↗
Under Cover
44.8%
EV -7.2%
-110FanDuel ↗

1st Half

AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.

Leads at the half

16.7%PUR
Tied 5.3%
IOWA78.0%
1st Half SpreadIOWA -10
15-10-35
PUR Cover
46.9%
no odds at this line
IOWA Cover
47.4%
no odds at this line
Push 5.7% — stake returned if it lands exactly on the line
1st Half Total (Over/Under)1H O/U 24.5
226.551
Over Cover
48.3%
no odds at this line
Under Cover
51.7%
no odds at this line

Player Props

IOWA PUR
Sort:

Odds Comparison

Spread

BookLineIOWAEVPUREV
FanDuel ↗-16.5-108+2.7%-112-7.1%
Polymarket ↗-16.5-10969-22.4%-147-12.0%

Moneyline

BookIOWAEVPUREV
FanDuel ↗-820-0.4%+570-11.1%
Kalshi ↗-719+0.3%+456-17.8%
Polymarket ↗-771-0.1%+381-22.1%

Total (O/U)

BookLineOverEV (O)UnderEV (U)
FanDuel ↗45.5-110+2.7%-110-7.2%
Polymarket ↗49.5-10969-27.2%-10969-22.4%

Where to Bet

silver
IOWA -16.5+2.7% EV

Win probability: 54.7%

FanDuel
-108Bet →
Polymarket
-10969Bet →

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AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa 88% to beat Purdue (12%).

Projection updated Nov 8, 4:45 AM ET

Who will win Purdue vs Iowa?

AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Iowa beat Purdue?

AccuScore's simulation gives Iowa a 88% chance of beating Purdue, against 12% for Purdue. Iowa are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Every Purdue vs Iowa meeting →Purdue predictions & record →Iowa predictions & record →

Season outlook

Purdue (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.3–7.7 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

Iowa (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.5–3.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

TeamProjected recordDivision titlePlayoffs
Purdue4.3–7.70%<1%
Iowa8.5–3.51%21%

From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Purdue and Iowa come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

PurdueLLLWW
  • Nov 7vs MarylandL 29–34
  • Oct 31at Penn StateL 17–31
  • Oct 16vs WashingtonL 26–38
  • Oct 10vs MinnesotaW 41–13
  • Oct 3at IllinoisW 24–17

Purdue have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).

IowaWWLLW
  • Nov 7at NorthwesternW 24–10
  • Oct 31vs WisconsinW 30–0
  • Oct 24at MinnesotaL 10–13
  • Oct 24at IllinoisL 17–20
  • Oct 9at WashingtonW 41–24

Iowa have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Purdue 5, Iowa 7. The last meeting, on Nov 5, 2022, finished Iowa 24, Purdue 3.

  • Nov 5, 2022IOWA 24 – 3 PUR
  • Oct 16, 2021PUR 24 – 7 IOWA
  • Oct 24, 2020IOWA 20 – 24 PUR
  • Oct 19, 2019PUR 20 – 26 IOWA
  • Nov 3, 2018IOWA 36 – 38 PUR
Every Purdue vs Iowa meeting →

Betting trends

Purdue are 29-20 as favourite and 26-83 as underdog, and 21-55 on the road (28% of 76 games, 2011–2026).

Iowa are 84-21 as favourite and 17-40 as underdog, and 60-32 at home (65% of 92 games, 2011–2026).

RecordPURIOWA
As favourite29-2084-21
As underdog26-8317-40
At home34-5560-32
On the road21-5546-34

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →