NCAAF
Wisconsin
5-3
Maryland
2-6
Win Probability
Wisconsin travels to Maryland as a decisive favourite in this matchup. The simulation leans heavily toward the Badgers, who project to win by a touchdown-plus margin. Malik Washington's projected 180 passing yards will need to be efficient for the home side, while Wisconsin's Colton Joseph faces a similar workload at 160 yards; the game hinges on which passing attack generates more explosive plays downfield, where Chris Durr Jr. and Tyrell Henry project for 45 and 30 receiving yards respectively. In 2,211 games where AccuScore favored one side this strongly, that side won 76 percent of the time. Maryland would need to dictate possession and limit Wisconsin's efficiency in the passing game to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MD | EV | WIS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +7.5 | -110 | -4.0% | -110 | -0.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +7.5 | -110 | -4.0% | -110 | -0.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -6.5 | -10969 | -41.3% | -10969 | -8.2% |
| Book | MD | EV | WIS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +245 | +0.7% | -300 | -2.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +250 | +1.4% | -310 | -3.3% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +252 | +1.7% | -322 | -3.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +212 | -4.1% | -396 | -5.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 43.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 43.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 43.5 | -10969 | -24.8% | -10969 | -24.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 29.4%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin 71% to beat Maryland (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Maryland a 29% chance of beating Wisconsin, against 71% for Wisconsin. Maryland are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Wisconsin (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.8–4.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Maryland (2-6 so far) project to finish 3.0–9.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Wisconsin and Maryland come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Wisconsin have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Maryland have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2014: Wisconsin 4, Maryland 1. The last meeting, on Sep 20, 2025, finished Maryland 27, Wisconsin 10.
Wisconsin are 98-30 as favourite and 14-25 as underdog, and 43-35 on the road (55% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
Maryland are 35-21 as favourite and 19-74 as underdog, and 30-52 at home (37% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WIS | MD |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 98-30 | 35-21 |
| As underdog | 14-25 | 19-74 |
| At home | 74-25 | 30-52 |
| On the road | 43-35 | 25-50 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →