NCAAF
Washington
5-3
Michigan State
2-6
Win Probability
Washington travels to Michigan State as a clear favourite in this matchup. The simulation leans decisively toward the Huskies, who project to win through superior passing efficiency: Elijah Brown is expected to generate 120 passing yards while the Spartans' Leo Hannan projects for just 10. Michigan State's ground game offers little counterweight, with Kenneth Williams forecasted for only 20 rushing yards. The game turns on whether Washington's passing attack can sustain drives, since the teams' combined scoring sits near the total line. Across eight similar games in AccuScore's historical record, the favoured side won five times. For Michigan State to pull the upset, the Huskies' passing game would need to stall significantly and Chrishon McCray would have to exceed his 30-yard projection considerably.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MSU | EV | WASH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +4.5 | -114 | -1.8% | -106 | -2.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +4.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +4.5 | -166 | -8.9% | -166 | -11.0% |
| Book | MSU | EV | WASH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +152 | -1.0% | -182 | -2.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +170 | +2.5% | -205 | -4.5% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +159 | +0.4% | -208 | -4.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +137 | -3.9% | -245 | -7.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 43.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 43.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 43.5 | -10969 | -23.9% | -10969 | -25.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 38.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Washington 61% to beat Michigan State (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Michigan State a 39% chance of beating Washington, against 61% for Washington. Michigan State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Washington (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.6–5.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Michigan State (2-6 so far) project to finish 3.4–8.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 6.6–5.4 | 0% | 1% |
| Michigan State | 3.4–8.6 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Washington and Michigan State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Washington have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Michigan State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Washington are 84-24 as favourite and 13-39 as underdog, and 35-42 on the road (45% of 77 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WASH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 84-24 | — |
| As underdog | 13-39 | — |
| At home | 64-26 | — |
| On the road | 35-42 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →