Northwestern
6-0
Ohio State
6-0
Win Probability
An undefeated Northwestern team travels to Ohio State, where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Aidan Chiles projects for 170 passing yards as Northwestern's primary offensive engine, while Ohio State's Bo Jackson is expected to contribute 70 rushing yards in a game that turns on whether the Buckeyes can establish early dominance. Jeremiah Smith's projected 60 receiving yards underscores how AccuScore expects the hosts to control the matchup through the air. In comparable games where the model has leaned this strongly, the favored side won 76 percent of the time. For Northwestern to pull the upset, Chiles would need to exceed his projection significantly while the Wildcats' defense limits Jackson's impact.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | OSU | EV | NU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -10.5 | -172 | -6.7% | -166 | -13.8% |
| Book | OSU | EV | NU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -458 | -1.4% | +280 | -11.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -480 | -1.8% | +222 | -17.3% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio State 80% to beat Northwestern (20%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio State the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ohio State a 80% chance of beating Northwestern, against 20% for Northwestern. Ohio State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northwestern (6-2 so far) project to finish 7.9–4.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Ohio State (6-2 so far) project to finish 9.0–3.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 57% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 7.9–4.1 | <1% | 8% |
| Ohio State | 9.0–3.0 | 17% | 57% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Northwestern and Ohio State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Northwestern have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Ohio State have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 6 times since 2013: Northwestern 0, Ohio State 6. The last meeting, on Nov 16, 2024, finished Ohio State 31, Northwestern 7.
Northwestern are 46-17 as favourite and 32-60 as underdog, and 36-38 on the road (49% of 74 games, 2011–2026).
Ohio State are 139-16 as favourite and 9-6 as underdog, and 99-12 at home (89% of 111 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NU | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 46-17 | 139-16 |
| As underdog | 32-60 | 9-6 |
| At home | 44-45 | 99-12 |
| On the road | 36-38 | 60-13 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →