Michigan
5-3
Oregon
5-3
Win Probability
Michigan travels to face Oregon in a matchup between evenly matched 5-3 teams where the simulation clearly favors the home side. AccuScore's model projects Oregon will control the game's tempo and field position, areas that have historically determined outcomes in similar situations—in 2,515 comparable games, the favored side won 66 percent. For Michigan to pull the upset, its offense would need to operate with uncommon efficiency; Oregon's defense projects to limit the Ducks' scoring opportunities throughout. The visiting Wolverines' path runs through dictating pace and converting third downs at rates well above their season norms. An Oregon victory by the projected margin would require the home team to execute a conservative, possession-oriented game plan.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ORE | EV | MICH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -5.5 | -110 | +1.9% | -110 | -6.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5.5 | -351 | -15.1% | -351 | -20.7% |
| Book | ORE | EV | MICH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -205 | +1.1% | +170 | -7.7% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -290 | -3.8% | +189 | -4.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -373 | -6.4% | +177 | -6.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 44.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.4% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon 69% to beat Michigan (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oregon a 69% chance of beating Michigan, against 31% for Michigan. Oregon are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Michigan (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oregon (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.5–4.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Michigan and Oregon come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Michigan have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Oregon have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: Michigan 0, Oregon 1. The last meeting, on Nov 2, 2024, finished Oregon 38, Michigan 17.
Michigan are 112-18 as favourite and 9-34 as underdog, and 39-37 on the road (51% of 76 games, 2011–2026).
Oregon are 104-24 as favourite and 14-18 as underdog, and 77-18 at home (81% of 95 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MICH | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 112-18 | 104-24 |
| As underdog | 9-34 | 14-18 |
| At home | 86-19 | 77-18 |
| On the road | 39-37 | 52-26 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →