NCAAF
Minnesota
5-3
Penn State
4-4
Win Probability
Minnesota travels to Penn State as a significant underdog in this matchup between teams sitting at 5-3 and 4-4 respectively. The simulation favours the Nittany Lions decisively. Penn State's defense will need to contain Minnesota's passing attack; the Golden Gophers project to exceed 220 passing yards with 62% probability. On the flip side, Minnesota's secondary faces a test from Penn State's ground game, which has a 58% chance of surpassing 130 rushing yards. In games where the model has leaned this strongly toward the home team, that side won 76% of the time across 2,211 graded contests. For Minnesota to pull the upset, the Golden Gophers would need their pass rush to disrupt Penn State's rhythm early and force turnovers.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | PSU | EV | MINN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -8.5 | -150 | -7.6% | -150 | -9.1% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -7.5 | -153 | -5.3% | -153 | -12.1% |
| Book | PSU | EV | MINN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -306 | -1.8% | +208 | -7.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5158 | -13.0% | -1649 | -35.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 42.5 | -150 | -7.3% | -150 | -9.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State 73% to beat Minnesota (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Penn State a 73% chance of beating Minnesota, against 27% for Minnesota. Penn State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Minnesota (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.5–5.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Penn State (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.7–5.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 6.5–5.5 | <1% | 1% |
| Penn State | 6.7–5.3 | 0% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Minnesota and Penn State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Minnesota have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Penn State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2013: Minnesota 2, Penn State 3. The last meeting, on Nov 23, 2024, finished Penn State 26, Minnesota 25.
Minnesota are 56-14 as favourite and 34-59 as underdog, and 34-42 on the road (45% of 76 games, 2011–2026).
Penn State are 93-26 as favourite and 13-35 as underdog, and 72-28 at home (72% of 100 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MINN | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 56-14 | 93-26 |
| As underdog | 34-59 | 13-35 |
| At home | 61-33 | 72-28 |
| On the road | 34-42 | 44-35 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →