East Carolina
5-4
Charlotte
1-8
Win Probability
East Carolina travels to Charlotte as a decisive favourite in this matchup between a 5-4 team and a 1-8 host. The simulation leans heavily toward the Pirates, projecting an offensive advantage that hinges on whether Charlotte can generate enough scoring to keep pace. In games where the model has favoured one side this strongly, that side won 76% of the time across 2,212 graded contests. For the 49ers to pull off the upset, they would need to limit East Carolina's scoring and convert their own opportunities at a rate the numbers do not expect.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | CLT | EV | ECU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | +11.5 | +100 | -1.8% | -115 | -1.6% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +11.5 | -127 | -6.9% | -126 | -3.6% |
| Book | CLT | EV | ECU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +351 | -2.0% | -458 | -2.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +286 | -8.9% | -513 | -3.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 45.5 | -138 | -6.1% | -144 | -8.4% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes East Carolina 79% to beat Charlotte (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes East Carolina the more likely winner at 79%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Charlotte a 21% chance of beating East Carolina, against 79% for East Carolina. Charlotte are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
East Carolina (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Charlotte (1-8 so far) project to finish 1.3–10.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina | 6.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Charlotte | 1.3–10.7 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How East Carolina and Charlotte come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
East Carolina have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Charlotte have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2024: East Carolina 1, Charlotte 1. The last meeting, on Nov 8, 2025, finished Charlotte 22, East Carolina 48.
East Carolina are 49-18 as favourite and 20-67 as underdog, and 32-53 on the road (38% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
Charlotte are 7-3 as favourite and 20-72 as underdog, and 16-34 at home (32% of 50 games, 2015–2026).
| Record | ECU | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 49-18 | 7-3 |
| As underdog | 20-67 | 20-72 |
| At home | 43-34 | 16-34 |
| On the road | 32-53 | 13-46 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →