NCAAF
North Texas
7-2
UTSA
7-2
Win Probability
North Texas travels to face UTSA in a matchup between evenly matched teams, with the simulation favoring the Mean Green slightly. Both squads enter at 7-2, and AccuScore's 50,000 simulations project a tight contest that hinges on offensive execution in the red zone. On games shaped this statistically similar, the favored side won 55% of the time across nearly 2,700 graded matchups. For UTSA to pull off the upset at home, the Roadrunners would need to force multiple turnovers or limit North Texas to field goals in scoring position.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | UTSA | EV | UNT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | +1.5 | -120 | -6.8% | -115 | -0.6% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +1.5 | -126 | -7.8% | -118 | -1.1% |
| Book | UTSA | EV | UNT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -107 | -6.9% | -116 | +1.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -123 | -9.6% | -128 | -0.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX ↗ | 77.5 | -135 | -5.4% | -137 | -7.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes North Texas 55% to beat UTSA (45%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Texas the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UTSA a 45% chance of beating North Texas, against 55% for North Texas. UTSA are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
North Texas (7-2 so far) project to finish 9.1–2.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UTSA (7-2 so far) project to finish 8.9–3.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 9.1–2.9 | 52% | 6% |
| UTSA | 8.9–3.1 | 24% | 3% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How North Texas and UTSA come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
North Texas have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
UTSA have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2013: North Texas 6, UTSA 6. The last meeting, on Oct 18, 2025, finished UTSA 17, North Texas 55.
North Texas are 49-17 as favourite and 25-66 as underdog, and 28-61 on the road (31% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
UTSA are 49-18 as favourite and 22-58 as underdog, and 43-31 at home (58% of 74 games, 2012–2026).
| Record | UNT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 49-17 | 49-18 |
| As underdog | 25-66 | 22-58 |
| At home | 48-28 | 43-31 |
| On the road | 28-61 | 34-48 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →