NCAAF
Tulane
4-5
Rice
1-8
Win Probability
Tulane travels to Rice in a coin-flip matchup where the simulation barely favours the visiting Green Wave. The game projects to a dead heat, turning entirely on whether either offence can sustain drives in the fourth quarter—a difference that has historically split close calls down the middle. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's lean has won 55% of the time across nearly 2,700 graded contests. Rice would need to string together scoring possessions late and force Tulane into mistakes to pull off the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | RICE | EV | TULN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -1.5 | -104 | -4.0% | -108 | +1.1% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -1.5 | -121 | -7.2% | -124 | -2.0% |
| Book | RICE | EV | TULN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -121 | -5.0% | -107 | -1.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -140 | -7.7% | -119 | -3.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 49.5 | -125 | -8.2% | -125 | -1.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Tulane 51% to beat Rice (49%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tulane the more likely winner at 51%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Rice a 49% chance of beating Tulane, against 51% for Tulane. Rice are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Tulane (4-5 so far) project to finish 4.8–7.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Rice (1-8 so far) project to finish 2.0–10.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Tulane and Rice come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tulane have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Rice have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2011: Tulane 1, Rice 3. The last meeting, on Oct 19, 2024, finished Rice 10, Tulane 24.
Tulane are 43-16 as favourite and 24-80 as underdog, and 31-59 on the road (34% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
Rice are 30-16 as favourite and 22-87 as underdog, and 33-43 at home (43% of 76 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TULN | RICE |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 43-16 | 30-16 |
| As underdog | 24-80 | 22-87 |
| At home | 42-40 | 33-43 |
| On the road | 31-59 | 22-64 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →