Nevada
3-6
Northern Illinois
0-9
Win Probability
Nevada travels to Northern Illinois as a clear favourite in AccuScore's simulation. The Wolf Pack have won 76% of games where the model has leaned this strongly in their direction across 2,212 graded matchups. Northern Illinois will need to generate enough offensive pressure to stay competitive; the simulation projects the Fighting Illini will need to hold Nevada well below their projected output to have a realistic path to victory. In games shaped statistically like this one, the underdog won 7 of 8 times, a reminder that even decisive model leans leave room for upset. For Northern Illinois to pull the surprise, their defence would have to force Nevada into significantly worse efficiency than AccuScore expects.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | NIU | EV | NEV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | +9.5 | -117 | -2.4% | -111 | -3.8% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +9.5 | -120 | -2.9% | -130 | -7.0% |
| Book | NIU | EV | NEV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +296 | +4.6% | -360 | -3.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +257 | -0.7% | -448 | -5.7% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Nevada 72% to beat Northern Illinois (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Nevada the more likely winner at 72%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Northern Illinois a 28% chance of beating Nevada, against 72% for Nevada. Northern Illinois are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Nevada (3-6 so far) project to finish 4.3–7.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Northern Illinois (0-9 so far) project to finish 1.1–10.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 4.3–7.7 | 0% | 0% |
| Northern Illinois | 1.1–10.9 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Nevada and Northern Illinois come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Nevada have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Northern Illinois have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Nevada are 45-18 as favourite and 23-69 as underdog, and 31-58 on the road (35% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
Northern Illinois are 64-23 as favourite and 22-50 as underdog, and 40-34 at home (54% of 74 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NEV | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 45-18 | 64-23 |
| As underdog | 23-69 | 22-50 |
| At home | 38-35 | 40-34 |
| On the road | 31-58 | 51-45 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →