App State
5-4
Marshall
5-4
Win Probability
App State travels to Marshall in a matchup between evenly matched 5-4 teams where the simulation leans slightly toward the visiting Mountaineers. The game hinges on field position and execution in the final moments—the model projects a two-point margin with an even split on whether the combined score clears the total. In games where AccuScore's lean has been this modest, its chosen side won 55% of the time across 2,697 graded contests. Marshall would need to keep App State's offense off the field and convert its own opportunities without stalling drives to pull off the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MRSH | EV | APP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | +2.5 | -113 | -2.5% | -113 | -3.3% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +2.5 | -121 | -3.9% | -124 | -5.2% |
| Book | MRSH | EV | APP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +105 | -4.7% | -143 | -2.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -114 | -8.5% | -158 | -4.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 53.5 | -135 | -6.7% | -138 | -6.7% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes App State 56% to beat Marshall (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes App State the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Marshall a 44% chance of beating App State, against 56% for App State. Marshall are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
App State (5-4 so far) project to finish 7.7–4.3 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Marshall (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.2–5.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How App State and Marshall come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
App State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Marshall have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2020: App State 2, Marshall 3. The last meeting, on Nov 22, 2025, finished Marshall 24, App State 26.
App State are 67-21 as favourite and 13-19 as underdog, and 39-28 on the road (58% of 67 games, 2014–2026).
Marshall are 72-29 as favourite and 17-37 as underdog, and 53-24 at home (69% of 77 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | APP | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 67-21 | 72-29 |
| As underdog | 13-19 | 17-37 |
| At home | 45-15 | 53-24 |
| On the road | 39-28 | 45-45 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →