Arkansas State
4-5
Coastal Carolina
3-6
Win Probability
Arkansas State travels to Coastal Carolina in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the hosts. The game hinges on total points: AccuScore projects a combined score near 51, and whether these teams stay under or push over that mark will likely decide it. On similar games where the model favored one side this modestly, that side won 55% of the time across nearly 2,700 graded contests. For Arkansas State to pull the upset, the Red Wolves would need to limit Coastal Carolina's scoring while generating enough of their own to overcome a visiting disadvantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | CCU | EV | ARST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -1.5 | -113 | -0.2% | -125 | -7.5% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -1.5 | -119 | -1.4% | -132 | -8.5% |
| Book | CCU | EV | ARST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -112 | +2.9% | -112 | -8.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -134 | -1.2% | -123 | -10.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 50.5 | -138 | -7.2% | -106 | -1.1% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Coastal Carolina 56% to beat Arkansas State (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Coastal Carolina the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Coastal Carolina a 56% chance of beating Arkansas State, against 44% for Arkansas State. Coastal Carolina are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Arkansas State (4-5 so far) project to finish 4.9–7.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Coastal Carolina (3-6 so far) project to finish 4.0–8.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 4.9–7.1 | <1% | 0% |
| Coastal Carolina | 4.0–8.0 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Arkansas State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Coastal Carolina have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2018: Arkansas State 2, Coastal Carolina 2. The last meeting, on Oct 7, 2021, finished Coastal Carolina 52, Arkansas State 20.
Arkansas State are 60-24 as favourite and 19-52 as underdog, and 40-53 on the road (43% of 93 games, 2011–2026).
Coastal Carolina are 26-8 as favourite and 14-23 as underdog, and 23-18 at home (56% of 41 games, 2018–2026).
| Record | ARST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 60-24 | 26-8 |
| As underdog | 19-52 | 14-23 |
| At home | 45-26 | 23-18 |
| On the road | 40-53 | 19-22 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →