NCAAF
Georgia Southern
5-4
Georgia State
5-4
Win Probability
Georgia Southern travels to face Georgia State in a Sun Belt matchup between evenly matched 5-4 teams. The simulation favours the Eagles clearly. Georgia Southern's passing game will be central to the outcome: the model projects quarterback Kyle Vantrease to exceed 240 passing yards with 58% probability, while Georgia State's defence will need to disrupt that rhythm to stay in the game. On the other side, State quarterback Haynes King projects to top 210 yards with just 45% probability, a gap that defines this matchup. AccuScore's model has favoured sides this strongly in 2,524 graded games and won 66% of them. For the Panther hosts to pull the upset, they would need to force Eagles mistakes and get their ground game to thrive when the aerial attack stalls.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | GAST | EV | GASO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | +5.5 | -102 | +1.7% | -115 | -5.4% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +5.5 | -105 | +1.0% | -133 | -8.2% |
| Book | GAST | EV | GASO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +159 | -2.2% | -200 | -2.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +131 | -7.4% | -235 | -5.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 56.5 | -125 | -5.3% | -125 | -4.7% |
| ProphetX ↗ | 56.5 | -130 | -6.0% | -137 | -6.5% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia Southern 63% to beat Georgia State (37%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia Southern the more likely winner at 63%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Georgia State a 37% chance of beating Georgia Southern, against 63% for Georgia Southern. Georgia State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Georgia Southern (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Georgia State (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.5–5.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern | 6.8–5.2 | 29% | <1% |
| Georgia State | 6.5–5.5 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Georgia Southern and Georgia State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Georgia Southern have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Georgia State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 10 times since 2014: Georgia Southern 5, Georgia State 5. The last meeting, on Oct 18, 2025, finished Georgia State 24, Georgia Southern 41.
Georgia Southern are 39-9 as favourite and 19-48 as underdog, and 32-41 on the road (44% of 73 games, 2014–2026).
Georgia State are 22-11 as favourite and 20-75 as underdog, and 23-41 at home (36% of 64 games, 2013–2026).
| Record | GASO | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 39-9 | 22-11 |
| As underdog | 19-48 | 20-75 |
| At home | 32-21 | 23-41 |
| On the road | 32-41 | 20-52 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →