NCAAF
Kennesaw State
3-6
Sam Houston
1-8
Win Probability
Kennesaw State travels to Sam Houston in a matchup between two struggling teams, but the simulation decisively favours the Owls. On games shaped this way historically, the favoured side won 76% of the time across 2,212 graded contests. The outcome hinges on whether Sam Houston's defence can generate enough pressure to disrupt Kennesaw State's rhythm; if the Bearkats sustain their offensive efficiency, their talent should prevail. For Sam Houston to pull the upset at home, the Bearkats would need to force multiple stops and convert field position into points—a steep ask against a side the model likes this strongly.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SHSU | EV | KENN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +266 | +2.2% | -340 | -3.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +169 | -11.7% | -421 | -5.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Kennesaw State 72% to beat Sam Houston (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Kennesaw State the more likely winner at 72%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sam Houston a 28% chance of beating Kennesaw State, against 72% for Kennesaw State. Sam Houston are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Kennesaw State (3-6 so far) project to finish 4.6–7.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Sam Houston (1-8 so far) project to finish 2.3–9.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State | 4.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% |
| Sam Houston | 2.3–9.7 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Kennesaw State and Sam Houston come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Kennesaw State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Sam Houston have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).