NCAAF
Southern Miss
3-6
Louisiana Tech
7-2
Win Probability
Louisiana Tech hosts Southern Miss in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the Bulldogs. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's pick has won 86% of 1,769 graded contests. Southern Miss will need to overcome a decisive lean toward Louisiana Tech, one that hinges on whether the Golden Eagles can generate enough offensive production to keep pace—the model projects a 19-point gap between the teams. For the visitors to pull the upset, they would need to control the game's tempo and avoid the kind of scoring drought that the simulation anticipates.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | LT | EV | USM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -869 | +0.0% | +625 | -12.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1064 | -0.9% | +540 | -17.0% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana Tech 90% to beat Southern Miss (10%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana Tech the more likely winner at 90%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Louisiana Tech a 90% chance of beating Southern Miss, against 10% for Southern Miss. Louisiana Tech are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Southern Miss (3-6 so far) project to finish 3.8–8.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Louisiana Tech (7-2 so far) project to finish 9.0–3.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | 3.8–8.2 | <1% | 0% |
| Louisiana Tech | 9.0–3.0 | 99% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Southern Miss have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Louisiana Tech have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Southern Miss are 39-24 as favourite and 19-66 as underdog, and 30-54 on the road (36% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | USM | LT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 39-24 | — |
| As underdog | 19-66 | — |
| At home | 28-44 | — |
| On the road | 30-54 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →