NCAAF
Troy
4-5
South Alabama
4-5
Win Probability
Troy travels to South Alabama in a matchup between two evenly matched teams at 4-5 apiece, with the simulation favoring the Jaguars at home. The model's lean toward South Alabama is clear but not overwhelming, and historical data on similarly shaped games shows the favored side winning 55% of the time across 2,697 graded contests. How Troy slows South Alabama's offense will likely decide the game; the Jaguars project to 30.7 points while Troy's defense must keep pace. For the Trojans to pull the upset, their offense will need to match or exceed that output, since games between these records tend to turn on which team executes in the final possessions.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | USA | EV | TROY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -2.5 | -141 | -3.9% | +111 | -1.4% |
| Book | USA | EV | TROY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -143 | +0.9% | +114 | -7.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -164 | -1.8% | +103 | -9.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 56.5 | -106 | +1.0% | -117 | -5.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes South Alabama 60% to beat Troy (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Alabama the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Alabama a 60% chance of beating Troy, against 40% for Troy. South Alabama are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Troy (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.8–6.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Alabama (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.2–6.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | 5.8–6.2 | <1% | <1% |
| South Alabama | 5.2–6.8 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Troy and South Alabama come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Troy have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
South Alabama have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2012: Troy 8, South Alabama 4. The last meeting, on Oct 4, 2025, finished South Alabama 24, Troy 31.
Troy are 53-25 as favourite and 19-58 as underdog, and 35-54 on the road (39% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
South Alabama are 31-22 as favourite and 14-75 as underdog, and 29-38 at home (43% of 67 games, 2012–2026).
| Record | TROY | USA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 53-25 | 31-22 |
| As underdog | 19-58 | 14-75 |
| At home | 41-32 | 29-38 |
| On the road | 35-54 | 21-62 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →